{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,13]],"date-time":"2026-10-13T09:44:57Z","timestamp":1791884697318,"version":"4.3.4"},"reference-count":58,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"5","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,18]],"date-time":"2026-05-18T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1779062400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":17,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,1]],"date-time":"2026-05-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1777593600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000057","name":"National Institute of General Medical Sciences","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["R01GM144972"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["R01GM144972"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000057","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Ecology"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,5]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>\n                    The accelerated rate of disease emergence in recent decades underscores the need to understand conditions that promote or dampen epidemics. Theoretical models consistently show that epidemics are smaller in populations with higher among\u2010individual heterogeneity in susceptibility. Experimental tests of these predictions are rare but critical for understanding how heterogeneity in susceptibility shapes epidemics in natural systems. We directly link data\u2010parameterized models from previous dose response experiments in the house finch and\n                    <jats:italic>Mycoplasma gallisepticum<\/jats:italic>\n                    system to experimental epidemics in replicated aviary mesocosm flocks. We manipulated flock\u2010level heterogeneity in susceptibility by seeding epidemics in flocks composed of either pathogen\u2010na\u00efve or previously exposed birds, which prior work showed have higher heterogeneity in susceptibility relative to pathogen\u2010na\u00efve populations. We tracked epidemics for over 2\u2009months, combining empirical data and stochastic compartmental models to address how heterogeneity in susceptibility changes epidemic severity. Consistent with previous work, estimates of heterogeneity in susceptibility based on coefficients of variation were higher for flocks given prior pathogen exposure relative to pathogen\u2010na\u00efve flocks. However, in contrast to prior work on individually housed birds which showed relatively homogeneous susceptibility for pathogen\u2010na\u00efve birds, the pathogen\u2010na\u00efve flocks in this study were better described by heterogeneous, rather than homogeneous, models of susceptibility. This suggests that flock\u2010level epidemics captured sources of heterogeneity absent in controlled experiments, such as transmission heterogeneity. Finally, although prior exposure conferred protection from disease at the individual level, we did not detect predicted effects of prior exposure and its associated flock\u2010level heterogeneity on prevalence. However, our ability to detect effects of prior exposure on flock\u2010level prevalence was obscured by unexpected variation in the competence of the initially pathogen\u2010na\u00efve index birds that seeded each epidemic. This variation in infectiousness among index birds significantly predicted flock\u2010level prevalence, with low index bird infectiousness contributing to the absence of detectable epidemics in two of the three na\u00efve flocks. Our stochastic simulations generated a wide range of prevalence outcomes for small epidemics over the timescales examined, further underscoring the challenges of measuring transmission dynamics in naturalistic settings, where unexpected variation in host traits such as competence can obscure other factors of interest.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/ecy.70407","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,19]],"date-time":"2026-05-19T05:01:23Z","timestamp":1779166883000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Infected host competence overshadows heterogeneity in susceptibility in shaping experimental epizootics"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"107","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8876-1872","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Anna A.","family":"P\u00e9rez\u2010Umphrey","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biological Sciences Virginia Tech  Blacksburg Virginia USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kate E.","family":"Langwig","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biological Sciences Virginia Tech  Blacksburg Virginia USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"James S.","family":"Adelman","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biological Sciences University of Memphis  Memphis Tennessee USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Lauren M.","family":"Childs","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Mathematics Virginia Tech  Blacksburg Virginia USA"},{"name":"Virginia Tech Center for the Mathematics of Biosystems, Virginia Tech  Blacksburg Virginia USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jesse","family":"Garrett\u2010Larsen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biological Sciences Virginia Tech  Blacksburg Virginia USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Dana M.","family":"Hawley","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biological Sciences Virginia Tech  Blacksburg Virginia USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Arietta E.","family":"Fleming\u2010Davies","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biology University of San Diego  San Diego California 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