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Yet, the mediators that drive an improvement in post\u2010surgical pain\u2010related disability in individuals with cervical radiculopathy (CR) are unknown. The aim of the present study is to use Bayesian networks (BN) to learn the probabilistic relationships between physical and psychological factors, and pain\u2010related disability in CR.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title><jats:p>We analysed a prospective cohort dataset of 201 post\u2010surgical individuals with CR. In all, 15 variables were used to build a BN model: age, sex, neck muscle endurance, neck range of motion, neck proprioception, hand grip strength, self\u2010efficacy, catastrophizing, depression, somatic perception, arm pain intensity, neck pain intensity and disability.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>A one point increase in a change of self\u2010efficacy at 6\u00a0months was associated with a 0.09 point decrease in a change in disability at 12\u00a0months (<jats:italic>t<\/jats:italic>\u00a0=\u00a0\u221264.09, <jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\u00a0&lt;\u00a0.001). Two pathways led to a change in disability: a direct path leading from a change in self\u2010efficacy at 6\u00a0months to disability, and an indirect path which was mediated by neck and arm pain intensity changes at 6 and 12\u00a0months.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title><jats:p>This is the first study to apply BN modelling to understand the mechanisms of recovery in post\u2010surgical individuals with CR. Improvements in pain\u2010related disability was directly and indirectly driven by changes in self\u2010efficacy levels. The present study provides potentially modifiable mediators that could be the target of future intervention trials. BN models could increase the precision of treatment and outcome assessment of individuals with CR.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Significance<\/jats:title><jats:p>Using Bayesian Network modelling, we found that changes in self\u2010efficacy levels at 6\u2010month post\u2010surgery directly and indirectly influenced the change in disability in individuals with CR. A mechanistic understanding of recovery provides potentially modifiable mediators that could be the target of future intervention trials.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1002\/ejp.1537","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2020,1,27]],"date-time":"2020-01-27T11:54:55Z","timestamp":1580126095000},"page":"909-920","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":12,"title":["Probing the mechanisms underpinning recovery in post\u2010surgical patients with cervical radiculopathy using Bayesian networks"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"24","author":[{"given":"Bernard X. 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