{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,23]],"date-time":"2026-09-23T07:59:09Z","timestamp":1790150349693,"version":"4.0.1"},"reference-count":74,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"8","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,4]],"date-time":"2026-09-04T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1788480000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":3,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,1]],"date-time":"2026-09-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1788220800000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["European Journal of Pain"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,9]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Background and Objective<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Non\u2010specific low back pain (LBP) frequently becomes persistent or recurrent. This systematic review and meta\u2010analysis determined whether physical, psychophysical or psychological variables can predict persistent or recurrent non\u2010specific LBP.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Database and Data Treatment<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Studies investigating physical, psychophysical or psychological predictors of persistent\/recurrent LBP, pain intensity or disability were included. MEDLINE, EMBASE, APA PsycINFO, PubMed, CINAHL Plus, Web of Science, Scopus, ZETOC and OpenGrey were searched until January 2025. Risk of bias of individual studies was assessed using QUIPS and the certainty of evidence using GRADE.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>\n                      Fifteen studies were included, all addressing persistent LBP, examining one physical predictor domain (trunk kinematics), one psychophysical predictor domain (pain sensitivity) and seven psychological domains (depression\u2010distress, anxiety, fear avoidance, catastrophising, somatisation, pain coping strategy, pain self\u2010efficacy). Depression and distress significantly predicted persistent LBP and disability (\n                      <jats:italic>n<\/jats:italic>\n                      \u2009=\u200915,778;\n                      <jats:italic>\u03b2<\/jats:italic>\n                      \u2009=\u20090.28, 95% CI: 0.04 to 0.53,\n                      <jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\n                      \u2009=\u20090.024), and fear avoidance also significantly predicted persistent LBP and disability (\n                      <jats:italic>n<\/jats:italic>\n                      \u2009=\u20091105;\n                      <jats:italic>\u03b2<\/jats:italic>\n                      \u2009=\u20090.24, 95% CI: 0.00 to 0.49,\n                      <jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\n                      \u2009=\u20090.049), albeit both with low certainty of evidence. Enhanced temporal summation of pain was not a significant predictor of pain outcomes (\n                      <jats:italic>n<\/jats:italic>\n                      \u2009=\u2009192;\n                      <jats:italic>\u03b2<\/jats:italic>\n                      \u2009=\u20090.10, 95% CI: \u22120.37 to 0.57), with very low certainty of evidence. Physical predictors showed limited and inconclusive evidence. Overall, the certainty of evidence ranged from very low to low across all predictor domains.\n                    <\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Psychological factors, particularly depression\u2010distress and fear avoidance, may predict LBP persistence, although higher quality studies are needed.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Significance Statement<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Depression\u2010distress and fear avoidance are significant predictors of persistent non\u2010specific low back pain, while evidence for physical predictors remains limited. These findings emphasize the need for early identification of modifiable psychological risk factors.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Trial Registration<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>PROSPERO (Registration number CRD42024599514)<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1002\/ejp.70358","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,4]],"date-time":"2026-09-04T08:41:42Z","timestamp":1788511302000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Physical, Psychophysical and Psychological Predictors of Persistent or Recurrent Non\u2010Specific Low Back Pain: A Systematic Review and Meta\u2010Analysis"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"30","author":[{"given":"Kanya","family":"Wongwitwichote","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre of Precision Rehabilitation for Spinal Pain, School of Sport, Exercise and Rehabilitation Sciences University of Birmingham  Birmingham UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Cho Wai Geoffrey","family":"Yu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre of Precision Rehabilitation for Spinal Pain, School of Sport, Exercise and Rehabilitation Sciences University of Birmingham  Birmingham UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Valter","family":"Devecchi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre of Precision Rehabilitation for Spinal Pain, School of Sport, Exercise and Rehabilitation Sciences University of Birmingham  Birmingham UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Michael","family":"Mansfield","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre of Precision Rehabilitation for Spinal Pain, School of Sport, Exercise and Rehabilitation Sciences University of Birmingham  Birmingham UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1689-6190","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Deborah","family":"Falla","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre of Precision Rehabilitation for Spinal Pain, School of Sport, Exercise and Rehabilitation Sciences University of Birmingham  Birmingham UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,4]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_11_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/21642850.2021.2022487"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjopen-2019-033298"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2147\/JMDH.S343494"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.26603\/001c.120199"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0287029"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(11)60610-7"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12906-025-04975-y"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ajem.2021.10.018"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0003-066X.62.3.254"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.14245\/ns.2448372.186"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jot.2021.07.005"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_13_1","volume-title":"Applied Multiple Regression\/Correlation Analysis for the Behavioral Sciences","author":"Cohen J.","year":"2003"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(24)00757-8"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S2665-9913(23)00098-X"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_16_1","article-title":"Updated Guidance for Trusted Systematic Reviews: A New Edition of the Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Interventions","volume":"10","author":"Cumpston M.","year":"2019","journal-title":"Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2519\/jospt.2017.7415"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jphys.2019.04.010"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s12206-024-2208-0"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_20_1","volume-title":"Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Interventions, Version 6.5","author":"Deeks J. 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