{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,16]],"date-time":"2025-10-16T00:59:12Z","timestamp":1760576352603,"version":"build-2065373602"},"reference-count":15,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2018,1,18]],"date-time":"2018-01-18T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1516233600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":17,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Electrophoresis"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2018,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>In the Amerithrax investigation PCR\u2010based \u201cmorph assays\u201d were used to link the anthrax letters with the RMR\u20101029 flask at USAMRIID. Quantitative data reported for several of these assays are not consistent with Poisson sampling statistics, but instead exhibit \u201cTaylor's Law\u201d behavior where the variance greatly exceeds the mean. A plausible statistical model for this behavior can explain the large number of observed negative and \u201cinconclusive\u201d findings, and implies a high likelihood that a repository sample could contain a \u201cmorph\u201d mutant at concentrations well above the nominal detection limit but nonetheless give a negative or inconclusive test result. A Bayesian framework relates the assay results to the probability that a sample actually contains all four morph mutants, even though it tested negative for at least one. The analysis implies that the observed false negative rate actually does not significantly weaken the conclusion that the morph assays correctly excluded all but the stocks derived from RMR\u20101029 as possible sources of the letter powders, at least when the test results were unambiguous. These findings expand upon and resolve some of the issues cited in recent reviews, and indicate the importance of developing a rigorous statistical framework for interpreting \u201cmorph\u201d assay data.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/elps.201600287","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2017,10,27]],"date-time":"2017-10-27T07:52:39Z","timestamp":1509090759000},"page":"386-393","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Statistical interpretation of the Amerithrax \u201cmorph\u201d assay results"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"39","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7145-7927","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Stephan Paul","family":"Velsko","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Global Security Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory  Livermore CA USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Joanne J.","family":"Osburn","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Global Security Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory  Livermore CA USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Sushil K.","family":"Sharma","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Applied Research and Methods United States Government Accountability Office  Washington DC USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"James D.","family":"Ashley","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Applied Research and Methods United States Government Accountability Office  Washington DC USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2018,1,18]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_8_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1016657108"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_3_1","unstructured":"United States Department of Justice Amerithrax Investigative Summary February 19 2010."},{"key":"e_1_2_8_4_1","unstructured":"National Research Council Review of the Scientific Approaches Used During the FBI's Investigation of the Anthrax Letters The National Academies Press Washington DC 2011."},{"key":"e_1_2_8_5_1","unstructured":"United States Government Accountability Office Anthrax: Agency Approaches to Validation and Statistical Analyses Could Be Improved GAO\u201015\u201080; December2014."},{"key":"e_1_2_8_6_1","unstructured":"Assay Development Morph E Validation Appendix A pages59\u201381;NRC Public Access Records Office Batch 2 Module 9."},{"key":"e_1_2_8_7_1","unstructured":"Genetic Mutations B and D; Assay Validity Report Task Order Number 2: Morph D Deletion; Indexed Raw Data Outputs; pages 413\u2013661; NRC Public Access Records Office Batch 2 Module 7"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_8_1","unstructured":"Molecular Analysis of Pathogen Strains and Isolates and Genetic Mutations Al and A3; Validation Study of Morph A1 Protocol p 649\u2013711 and Validation Study of Morph A3 Protocol p 868\u2013881. NRC Public Access Records Office Batch 2 Module 5."},{"key":"e_1_2_8_9_1","unstructured":"Assay Development Morphs A1\u2010A3 Final Report (Including Validation);NRC Public Access Records Office Batch 2 Module 5."},{"key":"e_1_2_8_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0304-3800(94)00053-K"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_11_1","unstructured":"ChakrabortyR Final Report of RFO\u2010FBI\u20102008\/Amerithrax Work (Statistical Analysis of Amerithrax Data); Appendix 2 page 81.NRC Public Access Records Office Batch 2 Module 10."},{"key":"e_1_2_8_12_1","unstructured":"Applied Biosystems Application Note Real Time PCR: Understanding Ct Publication 136AP01\u201001 May 2008."},{"key":"e_1_2_8_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/189732a0"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_14_1","first-page":"285","volume-title":"Technological Advances in Detection and Identification of Biological Threats","author":"Velsko S.","year":"2013"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1128\/JVI.00667-16"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nature18313"}],"container-title":["ELECTROPHORESIS"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/api.wiley.com\/onlinelibrary\/tdm\/v1\/articles\/10.1002%2Felps.201600287","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/analyticalsciencejournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/elps.201600287","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,15]],"date-time":"2025-10-15T18:16:37Z","timestamp":1760552197000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/analyticalsciencejournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1002\/elps.201600287"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2018,1]]},"references-count":15,"journal-issue":{"issue":"2","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2018,1]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1002\/elps.201600287"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/elps.201600287","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["0173-0835","1522-2683"],"issn-type":[{"type":"print","value":"0173-0835"},{"type":"electronic","value":"1522-2683"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2018,1]]}}}