{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,25]],"date-time":"2026-06-25T14:09:11Z","timestamp":1782396551766,"version":"3.54.5"},"reference-count":46,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2020,11,5]],"date-time":"2020-11-05T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1604534400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Food and Energy Security"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,2]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>In recent years, global hunger has begun to rise, returning to levels from a decade ago. Climate change is a key driver behind these recent rises and is one of the leading causes of severe food crises. When coupled with population growth and land use change, future climate variability is predicted to have profound impacts on global food security. We examine future global impacts of climate variability, population, and land use change on food security to 2050, using the modeling framework FEEDME (Food Estimation and Export for Diet and Malnutrition Evaluation). The model uses national food balance sheets (FBS) to determine mean per capita calories, hence incorporating an assumption that minimum dietary energy requirements (MDER) remain constant. To account for climate variability, we use two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), alongside three Shared Socio\u2010economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios incorporating land use and population change within the model. Our results indicate that SSP scenarios have a larger impact on future food insecurity, in particular because of projected changes in population. Countries with a projected decrease in population growth had higher food security, while those with a projected rapid population growth tended to experience the worst impacts on food security. Although climate change scenarios had an effect on future crop yields, population growth appeared to be the dominant driver of change in undernourishment prevalence. Therefore, strategies to mitigate the consequences of projected population growth, including improved maternal health care, increasing equality of access to food at the national level, closing the yield gap, and changes in trade patterns, are essential to ensuring severe future food insecurity is avoided.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/fes3.261","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2020,11,6]],"date-time":"2020-11-06T07:53:58Z","timestamp":1604649238000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":501,"title":["Impacts of land use, population, and climate change on global food security"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"10","author":[{"given":"Amy","family":"Molotoks","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Environment and Geography Stockholm Environment Institute York University of York York UK"},{"name":"Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences University of Aberdeen Aberdeen UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Pete","family":"Smith","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences University of Aberdeen Aberdeen UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Terence P.","family":"Dawson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Geography King's College London London UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2020,11,5]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_9_2_1","volume-title":"World agriculture towards 2030\/2050: The 2012 revision","author":"Alexandratos N.","year":"2012"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_3_1","volume-title":"Nutrition and poverty. UNU\u2010WIDER studies in development economics","author":"Anand S.","year":"1992"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"153","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1728-4457.2013.00557.x","article-title":"Fertility transition: Is sub\u2010Saharan Africa Different?","volume":"38","author":"Bongaarts J.","year":"2012","journal-title":"Population and Development Review"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_5_1","volume-title":"Advances in hunger measurement: traditional FAO methods and recent innovations","author":"Cafiero C.","year":"2014"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10584-012-0650-y"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10584-014-1277-y"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.foodpol.2011.08.003"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_9_1","volume-title":"The world food summit goal and the millennium development goals","author":"FAO","year":"2001"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_10_1","volume-title":"FAO methodology for estimating undernourishment","author":"FAO","year":"2004"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_11_1","volume-title":"An introduction to the basic concepts of food security food security information for action","author":"FAO","year":"2008"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_12_1","volume-title":"The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2018","author":"FAO","year":"2018"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_13_1","volume-title":"The future of food and farming","author":"Foresight","year":"2011"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1596\/978-1-4648-1393-1"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.2012.0273"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1185383"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/14735903.2017.1293929"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S1751731112001954"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/biosci\/bix010"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2808049"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1100480108"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s11027-018-9827-7"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1151753"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_24_1","volume-title":"The probability distribution framework for estimating the prevalence of undernourishment: Exploding the myth of the bivariate distribution","author":"Naiken L.","year":"2007"},{"issue":"3","key":"e_1_2_9_25_1","first-page":"191","article-title":"Declining birth rate in Developed Countries: A radical policy re\u2010think is required","volume":"1","author":"Nargund G.","year":"2009","journal-title":"Facts, Views & Vision in ObGyn"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_26_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41893-018-0192-z"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_27_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/jn\/133.11.3941S"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_28_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.gloenvcha.2015.01.004"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_29_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10584-013-0905-2"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_30_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.agrformet.2012.07.006"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_31_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.2005.1751"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_32_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0082714"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_33_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2527\/jas.2007-0467"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_34_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1104\/pp.15.00066"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_35_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.agsy.2009.05.002"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_36_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1116437108"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_37_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nature01014"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_38_1","volume-title":"The Sustainable Development Goals Report","author":"UN","year":"2018"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_39_1","volume-title":"World Population Prospects 2019: Highlights (ST\/ESA\/SER.A\/423)","author":"United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division","year":"2019"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_40_1","volume-title":"Challenges of global agriculture in a climate change context by 2050 (AgCLIM50), JRC Science for Policy Report","author":"Van Meijl H.","year":"2017"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_41_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10584-011-0148-z"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_42_1","volume-title":"Refinements to the FAO methodology for estimating the prevalence of undernourishment indicator","author":"Wanner N.","year":"2014"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_43_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2747\/1539-7216.52.1.140"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_44_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1088\/1748-9326\/10\/8\/085010"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_45_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(18)31788-4"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_46_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s13593-012-0102-0"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_47_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1701762114"}],"container-title":["Food and Energy Security"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/fes3.261","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1002\/fes3.261","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/fes3.261","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2023,9,2]],"date-time":"2023-09-02T12:02:10Z","timestamp":1693656130000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1002\/fes3.261"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2020,11,5]]},"references-count":46,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,2]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1002\/fes3.261"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/fes3.261","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["2048-3694","2048-3694"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2048-3694","type":"print"},{"value":"2048-3694","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2020,11,5]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2020-11-05","order":2,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}],"article-number":"e261"}}