{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,26]],"date-time":"2026-10-26T11:40:48Z","timestamp":1793014848678,"version":"4.5.0"},"reference-count":49,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,15]],"date-time":"2026-02-15T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1771113600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":14,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,1]],"date-time":"2026-02-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1769904000000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Int J Geriat Psychiatry"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,2]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>To model scenarios exploring potential impacts of disease\u2010modifying therapies (DMTs) for Alzheimer's disease (AD) dementia on future health and social care costs in the United Kingdom.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>A cohort Markov model was developed using population projections and published AD epidemiological data. Stage\u2010specific transition rates (mild cognitive impairment due to AD and mild, moderate, severe AD dementia) and health and social care cost data were applied to estimate cost outcomes over 2020\u20132040. Potential proportion of eligible population receiving treatment (uptake) and follow\u2010up care models (primary vs. specialist care) were elicited from expert opinion. Scenarios combined ranges of DMT efficacy estimates, uptake, and care model. DMT price was excluded due to no UK precedent.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Without DMT access, 1,038,405 people (1.5%) were projected to have AD dementia by 2040. Under the various DMT treatment scenarios, the prevalence of AD dementia by 2040 was projected to be 34,000\u201398,000 cases lower. Associated cumulative cost offsets were higher, \u00a34.4\u201312.9billion over 2020\u20132040, in scenarios where most individuals received primary care follow\u2010up, compared with majority specialist care follow\u2010up (\u2010\u00a32.3billion to +\u00a33.2billion). Assuming DMT efficacy of 25%, 58% uptake and majority primary care follow\u2010up cumulative cost offsets increased from \u00a34.4billion to \u00a310.1billion by 2040 but the UK Health Service would need to diagnose and provide DMT for over a million individuals by 2030 and two million by 2040 to achieve this.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Potential cost offset from DMT are large but highly dependent on the model of healthcare delivery and the ability of healthcare systems to scale up diagnosis and treatment services.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1002\/gps.70185","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,16]],"date-time":"2026-02-16T11:41:31Z","timestamp":1771242091000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Estimating the Future Health and Social Care Costs of Alzheimer's Disease Dementia in the UK: Impact of Disease Modifying Therapy Efficacy, Uptake, and Care Model \u2013 A Scenario Modelling Study"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"41","author":[{"given":"Marc","family":"Evans","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"University Hospital Llandough  Wales UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Craig","family":"Ritchie","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Scottish Brain Sciences Gyleview House  Edinburgh UK"},{"name":"University of St Andrews  College Gate UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Dominic","family":"Trepel","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Trinity College Dublin School of Medicine Trinity Biomedical Sciences Institute Trinity College  Dublin Ireland"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Julie Hviid","family":"Hahn\u2010Pedersen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Novo Nordisk A\/S  S\u00f8borg Denmark"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jamie","family":"Kettle","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Health Analytics Lane Clark &amp; Peacock LLP  London UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mei Sum","family":"Chan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Health Analytics Lane Clark &amp; Peacock LLP  London UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Benjamin D.","family":"Bray","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Health Analytics Lane Clark &amp; Peacock LLP  London UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Alice","family":"Clark","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Novo Nordisk A\/S  S\u00f8borg Denmark"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Milana","family":"Ivkovic","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Novo Nordisk A\/S  S\u00f8borg Denmark"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Christian Ahmad","family":"Wichmann","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Novo Nordisk A\/S  S\u00f8borg Denmark"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Sophie","family":"Edwards","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Central and North West London NHS Foundation Trust  London UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,15]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_11_2_1","unstructured":"R.Wittenberg B.Hu L.Barraza\u2010Araiza andA.Rehill Projections of Older People With Dementia and Costs of Dementia Care in the United Kingdom 2019\u20132040London School of Economics."},{"key":"e_1_2_11_3_1","unstructured":"The economic impact of dementia [Internet]Dementia Statistics Hub: [cited 2023 Dec 29] https:\/\/dementiasstatistics.org\/statistics\/the\u2010economic\u2010impact\u2010of\u2010dementia\/."},{"key":"e_1_2_11_4_1","unstructured":"The overlooked impact of Alzheimer\u2019s diseaseAlzheimer\u2019s Research UK: [cited 2023 Dec 29] https:\/\/www.alzheimersresearchuk.org\/blog\/the\u2010overlooked\u2010impact\u2010of\u2010alzheimers\u2010disease\/."},{"key":"e_1_2_11_5_1","unstructured":"Dementia [Internet].2023[cited 2023 Mar 31] https:\/\/www.who.int\/news\u2010room\/fact\u2010sheets\/detail\/dementia."},{"key":"e_1_2_11_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/ageing\/afaa228"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1212\/WNL.0000000000004826"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/jnnp.2005.085332"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s13195\u2010019\u20100525\u20109"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jalz.2018.02.018"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jalz.2011.03.008"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/nejmoa2212948"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.2023.13239"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_14_1","volume-title":"FDA Converts Novel Alzheimer\u2019s Disease Treatment to Traditional Approval [Internet]","author":"Commissioner O of the","year":"2023"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_15_1","volume-title":"How Much Does Dementia Care Cost?"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1590\/s1980\u201057642010dn40400003"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2174\/156720501209151019111448"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_18_1","unstructured":"Markov Models \u2010 An Overview | Sciencedirect Topics. 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