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We aimed to construct a predictive model for loneliness onset among older adults and evaluate its predictive performance.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>A total of 4050 participants responded to our survey (mean follow\u2010up period: 3.1 [range, 2.8\u20133.3] years). Of these, 1806 older adults (age \u2265 65\u00a0years) who were not lonely at baseline were included. Loneliness was assessed using the UCLA Loneliness Scale (Version 3). A score of \u2265 44 indicated the presence of loneliness at follow\u2010up. Predictive models for the onset of loneliness were developed using 12 machine\u2010learning algorithms. Discrimination was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Sensitivity analyses examined the contribution of baseline UCLA\u2010LS information, model stability, and class imbalance handling.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>In total, 421 respondents (23.3%) reported loneliness at follow\u2010up. The XGBoost model achieved the highest AUC of 0.740 (0.705\u20130.776), with an accuracy of 0.631, sensitivity of 0.806, and specificity of 0.577. SHAP analysis indicated that baseline UCLA\u2010LS items were among the most influential predictors. When all baseline UCLA\u2010LS items were excluded, the test AUC decreased to 0.635. Ten\u2010fold cross\u2010validation showed a mean AUC of 0.742\u00a0\u00b1\u00a00.065 for the full XGBoost model.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>XGBoost showed moderate discrimination for predicting 3\u2010year loneliness onset. However, baseline UCLA\u2010LS information contributed substantially to model performance, and external predictors alone showed modest discriminative ability. Further refinement and external validation are needed before implementation.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1002\/gps.70254","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,5]],"date-time":"2026-09-05T19:23:59Z","timestamp":1788636239000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Development of a Predictive Model for the Onset of Loneliness in Older Adults From the National Center for Geriatrics and Gerontology\u2010Study of Geriatric Syndromes"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"41","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1914-9721","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Takahiro","family":"Shimoda","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Preventive Gerontology Center for Gerontology and Social Science National Center for Geriatrics and Gerontology  Obu Aichi 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Gerontology and Social Science National Center for Geriatrics and Gerontology  Obu Aichi Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0002-5300-4980","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ayuka","family":"Kawakami","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Preventive Gerontology Center for Gerontology and Social Science National Center for Geriatrics and Gerontology  Obu Aichi Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9468-3783","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Daiki","family":"Yamagiwa","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Preventive Gerontology Center for Gerontology and Social Science National Center for Geriatrics and Gerontology  Obu Aichi Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Shoma","family":"Akaida","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Preventive Gerontology Center 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