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Here, we combined computational modeling and single\u2010trial EEG analysis to examine how the brain dynamically updates beliefs about others' intentions in volatile social contexts. A total of 43 healthy volunteers engaged in a deception\u2010free advice\u2010taking task, featuring alternating stable and volatile phases that systematically manipulated the reliability of an adviser's intentions. Using the hierarchical Gaussian filter (HGF), a Bayesian model of learning, we quantified trial\u2010by\u2010trial updates of participants' beliefs and their neural correlates. EEG amplitudes systematically varied according to task volatility, engaging neural regions associated with uncertainty processing such as the fusiform gyrus and posterior cingulate cortex. Sensor\u2010level EEG analyses confirmed a temporal sequence consistent with the hierarchical computations predicted by the HGF, whereby lower\u2010level prediction errors were processed earlier than higher\u2010order volatility\u2010related signals. Moreover, individual differences in these hierarchical neural processes correlated significantly with psychosocial functioning, suggesting that disruptions in Bayesian belief updating may underlie functional impairments in clinical populations. Collectively, our results reveal novel neural evidence for hierarchical Bayesian inference during social learning, highlighting its critical role in adaptive social behavior and potential relevance to mental health.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/hbm.70433","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,14]],"date-time":"2026-01-14T08:56:23Z","timestamp":1768380983000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Neural Dynamics of Social Cognition: A Single\u2010Trial Computational Analysis of Learning Under Uncertainty"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"47","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9342-3533","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Colleen E.","family":"Charlton","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Krembil Centre for Neuroinformatics Centre for Addiction and Mental Health (CAMH)  Toronto Ontario Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1772-9239","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Daniel J.","family":"Hauke","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Hawkes Institute, Department of Computer Science University College London  London UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8535-7452","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Vladimir","family":"Litvak","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Imaging Neuroscience University College London  London UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Michelle","family":"Wobmann","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Psychiatry (UPK) University of Basel  Basel Switzerland"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3774-2086","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Renate","family":"de Bock","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Psychiatry (UPK) University of Basel  Basel Switzerland"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Christina","family":"Andreou","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Translational Psychiatry University of L\u00fcbeck  L\u00fcbeck Germany"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Stefan","family":"Borgwardt","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Translational Psychiatry University of L\u00fcbeck  L\u00fcbeck Germany"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Volker","family":"Roth","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Mathematics and Computer Science University of Basel  Basel Switzerland"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Andreea O.","family":"Diaconescu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Krembil Centre for Neuroinformatics Centre for Addiction and Mental Health (CAMH)  Toronto Ontario Canada"},{"name":"Institute of Medical Sciences University of Toronto  Toronto Ontario Canada"},{"name":"Department of Psychiatry University of Toronto  Toronto Ontario Canada"},{"name":"Department of Psychology University of Toronto  Toronto Ontario Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,14]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_9_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/s1092852900009317"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fpsyt.2013.00047"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.conb.2017.08.010"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fpsyt.2020.00806"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tics.2022.12.004"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nature07538"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cortex.2019.09.002"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.nicl.2020.102239"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/schbul\/sbm029"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7554\/eLife.99018.4"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7554\/eLife.76702"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1003441"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.bpsc.2019.10.007"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1003992"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0087619"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41380\u2010019\u20100427\u2010z"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_18_1","article-title":"A Computational Hierarchy in Human Cortex","author":"Diaconescu A. 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