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We tested prediction models with combinations of factors and then assessed discrimination of our final model.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>Cancer site in the hypopharynx, advanced tumor classification, chemoradiation, preexisting dysphagia, stroke, dementia, esophagitis, esophageal spasm, esophageal stricture, gastroesophageal reflux, thrush, or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease were associated with increased risk of long\u2010term dysphagia. Our final prediction tool gives personalized risk calculation for diagnosis of dysphagia, aspiration pneumonia, or gastrostomy tube placement at 5, 10, and 15\u2009years after HNC based on 18 factors.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title><jats:p>We developed a clinically useful risk prediction tool to identify HNC survivors most at risk for dysphagia.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1002\/hed.26039","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2020,2,7]],"date-time":"2020-02-07T12:40:32Z","timestamp":1581079232000},"page":"708-718","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":17,"title":["Individualized prediction of late\u2010onset dysphagia in head and neck cancer survivors"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"42","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1445-878X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Alana","family":"Aylward","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department 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