{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,13]],"date-time":"2026-10-13T15:11:36Z","timestamp":1791904296573,"version":"4.3.4"},"reference-count":30,"publisher":"Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health)","issue":"6","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,1,24]],"date-time":"2022-01-24T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1642982400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,1,24]],"date-time":"2022-01-24T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1642982400000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["lww.com","ovid.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Hepatology"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2022,6]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Background and Aims<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Alcohol consumption increased during the COVID\u201019 pandemic in 2020 in the United States. We projected the effect of increased alcohol consumption on alcohol\u2010associated liver disease (ALD) and mortality.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Approach and Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>We extended a previously validated microsimulation model that estimated the short\u2010 and long\u2010term effect of increased drinking during the COVID\u201019 pandemic in individuals in the United States born between 1920 and 2012. We modeled short\u2010 and long\u2010term outcomes of current drinking patterns during COVID\u201019 (status quo) using survey data of changes in alcohol consumption in a nationally representative sample between February and November 2020. We compared these outcomes with a counterfactual scenario wherein no COVID\u201019 occurs and drinking patterns do not change.<\/jats:p>\n                    <jats:p>One\u2010year increase in alcohol consumption during the COVID\u201019 pandemic is estimated to result in 8000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 7500\u20138600) additional ALD\u2010related deaths, 18,700 (95% UI, 17,600\u201319,900) cases of decompensated cirrhosis, and 1000 (95% UI, 1000\u20131100) cases of HCC, and 8.9 million disability\u2010adjusted life years between 2020 and 2040. Between 2020 and 2023, alcohol consumption changes due to COVID\u201019 will lead to 100 (100\u2013200) additional deaths and 2800 (2700\u20132900) additional decompensated cirrhosis cases. A sustained increase in alcohol consumption for more than 1 year could result in additional morbidity and mortality.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>A short\u2010term increase in alcohol consumption during the COVID\u201019 pandemic can substantially increase long\u2010term ALD\u2010related morbidity and mortality. Our findings highlight the need for individuals and policymakers to make informed decisions to mitigate the impact of high\u2010risk alcohol drinking in the United States.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1002\/hep.32272","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,12,8]],"date-time":"2021-12-08T09:52:45Z","timestamp":1638957165000},"page":"1480-1490","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1097\/lww.0000000000001000","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":117,"title":["Effect of increased alcohol consumption during COVID\u201019 pandemic on alcohol\u2010associated liver disease: A modeling study"],"prefix":"10.1097","volume":"75","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3067-7541","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jovan","family":"Julien","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering,Georgia Institute of Technology,Atlanta,Georgia,USA"},{"name":"Institute for Technology Assessment,Massachusetts General Hospital,Boston,Massachusetts,USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Turgay","family":"Ayer","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering,Georgia Institute of Technology,Atlanta,Georgia,USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Elliot B.","family":"Tapper","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology,University of Michigan,Ann Arbor,Michigan,USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7535-9443","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Carolina","family":"Barbosa","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"RTI International,Research Triangle Park,North Carolina,USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"William N.","family":"Dowd","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"RTI International,Research Triangle Park,North Carolina,USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8741-4430","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jagpreet","family":"Chhatwal","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute for Technology Assessment,Massachusetts General Hospital,Boston,Massachusetts,USA"},{"name":"Harvard Medical School,Boston,Massachusetts,USA"},{"name":"Liver Center and Gastrointestinal Division,Massachusetts General Hospital,Boston,Massachusetts,USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"276","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,1,24]]},"reference":[{"issue":"4","key":"hep32272-bib-0001-20250824","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"341","DOI":"10.1097\/ADM.0000000000000767","article-title":"Alcohol consumption in response to the COVID\u201019 pandemic in the United States","volume":"15","year":"2021","journal-title":"J Addiction Med"},{"key":"hep32272-bib-0002-20250824","article-title":"Changes in adult alcohol use and consequences during the COVID\u201019 pandemic in the US","volume":"3","year":"2020","journal-title":"JAMA Network Open"},{"key":"hep32272-bib-0006-20250824","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e316","DOI":"10.1016\/S2468-2667(20)30062-1","article-title":"Projected prevalence and mortality associated with alcohol\u2010related liver disease in the USA, 2019\u201340: a modelling study","volume":"5","year":"2020","journal-title":"The Lancet Public Health"},{"key":"hep32272-bib-0007-20250824","article-title":"Mortality due to cirrhosis and liver cancer in the United States, 1999\u20132016: observational study","volume":"362","year":"2018","journal-title":"BMJ"},{"key":"hep32272-bib-0008-20250824","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"178","DOI":"10.1111\/acer.14239","article-title":"Using death certificates to explore changes in alcohol\u2010related mortality in the United States, 1999 to 2017","volume":"44","year":"2020","journal-title":"Alcohol Clin Exp Res"},{"issue":"2","key":"hep32272-bib-0009-20250824","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"441","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhep.2020.04.005","article-title":"COVID\u201019 pandemic will have a long\u2010lasting impact on the quality of cirrhosis care","volume":"73","year":"2020","journal-title":"J Hepatol"},{"key":"hep32272-bib-0011-20250824","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"765","DOI":"10.1177\/0272989X19873627","article-title":"Estimating long\u2010term drinking patterns for people with lifetime alcohol use disorder","volume":"39","year":"2019","journal-title":"Med Decis Making"},{"key":"hep32272-bib-0012-20250824","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1757","DOI":"10.1097\/01.ALC.0000093744.12232.34","article-title":"I. 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