{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,28]],"date-time":"2025-10-28T05:53:44Z","timestamp":1761630824265},"reference-count":11,"publisher":"Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health)","issue":"6","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2018,4,24]],"date-time":"2018-04-24T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1524528000000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc-nd\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"award":["DK80670"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["DK80670"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Hepatology Communications"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2018,6]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>The United Kingdom\u2010Primary Biliary Cholangitis (UK\u2010PBC) risk scores are a set of prognostic models that estimate the risk of end\u2010stage liver disease in patients with PBC at 5\u2010, 10\u2010 and 15\u2010year intervals. They have not been externally validated outside the United Kingdom. In this retrospective, external validation study, data were abstracted from outpatient charts and discrimination and calibration of the UK\u2010PBC risk scores were assessed. A total of 464 patients with PBC treated with ursodeoxycholic acid were included. The median diagnosis age was 52.4 years, and 88% were female patients. The cumulative incidence of events was 6%, 9%, and 15% at 5, 10, and 15 years, respectively. Concordance (c\u2010statistic) was 0.88, 0.85, and 0.84 using the 5\u2010, 10\u2010 and 15\u2010year risk scores, respectively, which was slightly lower than values observed in the United Kingdom validation cohort. Using the 5\u2010year risk score, more events were observed than predicted (25 versus 16.8; <jats:italic toggle=\"yes\">P =<\/jats:italic> 0.046); using the 10\u2010year risk score, there was no difference between the observed and predicted number of events (35 versus 44.9; <jats:italic toggle=\"yes\">P =<\/jats:italic> 0.14); conversely, using the 15\u2010year risk score, fewer events were observed than predicted (46 versus 67.5; <jats:italic toggle=\"yes\">P =<\/jats:italic> 0.009). Limiting evaluation by the 15\u2010year UK\u2010PBC risk score to those with &gt;10 years of follow\u2010up demonstrated no difference between observed and predicted events. Using the 5\u2010year risk score, patients within the highest quartile had statistically significant worse event\u2010free survival compared to the rest of the cohort: 82% versus 98% at 5 years, 73% versus 97% at 10 years, and 58% versus 93% at 15 years. <jats:italic toggle=\"yes\">Conclusion:<\/jats:italic> In patients assessed at a North American tertiary medical center, the UK\u2010PBC risk score had excellent discrimination and was reasonably calibrated both in the short and long term. (<jats:italic toggle=\"yes\">Hepatology Communications<\/jats:italic> 2018;2:676\u2010682)<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/hep4.1186","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2018,4,24]],"date-time":"2018-04-24T13:37:32Z","timestamp":1524577052000},"page":"676-682","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":8,"title":["External validation of the United Kingdom\u2010primary biliary cholangitis risk scores of patients with primary biliary cholangitis treated with ursodeoxycholic acid"],"prefix":"10.1097","volume":"2","author":[{"given":"Angela C.","family":"Cheung","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology,Mayo Clinic,Rochester,MN"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Aliya F.","family":"Gulamhusein","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Gastroenterology, Toronto Center for Liver Disease,University Health Network,Toronto,ONT,Canada"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Brian D.","family":"Juran","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology,Mayo Clinic,Rochester,MN"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Erik M.","family":"Schlicht","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology,Mayo Clinic,Rochester,MN"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Bryan M.","family":"McCauley","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Health Sciences Research,Mayo Clinic,Rochester,MN"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Mariza","family":"de Andrade","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Health Sciences Research,Mayo Clinic,Rochester,MN"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Elizabeth J.","family":"Atkinson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Health Sciences Research,Mayo Clinic,Rochester,MN"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Konstantinos N.","family":"Lazaridis","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology,Mayo Clinic,Rochester,MN"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"276","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2018,4,24]]},"reference":[{"key":"hep41186-bib-0001-20240114","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"647","DOI":"10.1016\/j.bpg.2010.07.006","article-title":"Primary biliary cirrhosis","volume":"24","year":"2010","journal-title":"Best Pract Res Clin Gastroenterol"},{"key":"hep41186-bib-0002-20240114","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"779","DOI":"10.1016\/S1089-3261(03)00100-4","article-title":"Natural history of primary biliary cirrhosis","volume":"7","year":"2003","journal-title":"Clin Liver 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