{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,20]],"date-time":"2026-08-20T18:25:35Z","timestamp":1787250335735,"version":"build-2736575974"},"reference-count":32,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,25]],"date-time":"2026-02-25T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1771977600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,25]],"date-time":"2026-02-25T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1771977600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Health Science Reports"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,3]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Tuberculosis (TB) remains a significant public health challenge, necessitating accurate forecasting methodologies to support effective control and prevention strategies. This paper explores the application and comparative performance of single and hybrid time\u2010series models for forecasting TB incidence trends specifically in Somalia.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>\n                      Annual TB incidence data from 2000 to 2022 were sourced from the World Bank to train and evaluate a comprehensive suite of 14 time\u2010series models. This included five single models\u2014ARIMA, ETS, TBATS, Theta, and NNAR\u2014and nine hybrid model combinations (e.g., ARIMA\u2010ETS, ARIMA\u2010TBATS, ARIMA\u2010ETS\u2010TBATS). Model performance was assessed using Theil's\n                      <jats:italic>U<\/jats:italic>\n                      statistic, Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (SMAPE), and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE).\n                    <\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Among the single time\u2010series models, the TBATS model demonstrated the best fit. However, the comparative analysis revealed that the hybrid ARIMA\u2010ETS\u2010TBATS model outperformed other hybrid configurations. The study highlights that hybrid modeling offers enhanced forecasting accuracy compared to single models.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The resulting forecasts provide valuable insights into future TB incidence trends in Somalia. These findings underscore the importance of hybrid modeling in generating accurate data to aid informed public health decision\u2010making and the development of targeted intervention strategies for TB control.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1002\/hsr2.71923","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,8]],"date-time":"2026-03-08T19:23:44Z","timestamp":1772997824000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Forecasting Tuberculosis Incidence in Somalia: A Comparative Analysis of Single and Hybrid Time\u2010Series Models"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"9","author":[{"given":"Hana Mahdi","family":"Dahir","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Postgraduate Studies and Research Amoud University Amoud Valley Borama Somalia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ayan Husein","family":"Korse","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Postgraduate Studies and Research Amoud University Amoud Valley Borama Somalia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2389-8717","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Farduus Ibrahim","family":"Mohamed","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Postgraduate Studies and Research Amoud University Amoud Valley Borama Somalia"},{"name":"School of Postgraduate Studies and Research University of Hargeisa Hargeisa Somalia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0481-0372","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Saralees","family":"Nadarajah","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Mathematics University of Manchester Manchester UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mohamed Said","family":"Hassan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Health Sciences, School of Medicine and Surgery Amoud University Borama Somalia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,25]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_14_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pdig.0000084"},{"key":"e_1_2_14_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2147\/IDR.S367528"},{"key":"e_1_2_14_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s40249-020-00771-7"},{"key":"e_1_2_14_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2174\/0929867323666160607222854"},{"key":"e_1_2_14_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2147\/IDR.S190418"},{"key":"e_1_2_14_7_1","unstructured":"WHO \u201cTuberculose (TB) \u201dWorld Health Organization https:\/\/www.afro.who.int\/health-topics\/tuberculosis-tb."},{"key":"e_1_2_14_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.heliyon.2022.e09897"},{"key":"e_1_2_14_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.36566\/ijhsrd\/vol1.iss1\/8"},{"key":"e_1_2_14_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12890-024-03296-z"},{"key":"e_1_2_14_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1590\/1980-549720240027"},{"key":"e_1_2_14_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12889-023-17495-6"},{"key":"e_1_2_14_13_1","unstructured":"WHO \u201cWorld TB Day 2022: Getting Back on Track to Diagnose and Report TB Cases to Save Lives \u201dWorld Health Organization https:\/\/www.emro.who.int\/somalia\/news\/world-tb-day-2022-getting-back-on-track-to-diagnose-and-report-tb-cases-to-save-lives.html."},{"key":"e_1_2_14_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.dib.2020.105340"},{"key":"e_1_2_14_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jiph.2020.06.001"},{"key":"e_1_2_14_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12879-021-05973-4"},{"key":"e_1_2_14_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/09603123.2024.2368137"},{"key":"e_1_2_14_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12879-020-05033-3"},{"key":"e_1_2_14_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2020.138817"},{"key":"e_1_2_14_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1155\/2020\/1720134"},{"key":"e_1_2_14_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjopen-2020-039676"},{"key":"e_1_2_14_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0950268816003216"},{"key":"e_1_2_14_23_1","unstructured":"R. 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