{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,2]],"date-time":"2026-09-02T10:19:49Z","timestamp":1788344389855,"version":"build-2803163510"},"reference-count":41,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"5","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,10]],"date-time":"2026-05-10T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1778371200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":9,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc-nd\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,1]],"date-time":"2026-05-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1777593600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Health Science Reports"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,5]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Background and Aims<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>In this paper, we present a valuable and novel interdisciplinary study that applies a classic epidemiological model, Susceptible\u2010Infected\u2010Recovered (SIR) to capture the mean disease dynamics, with a novel Zubair Fr\u00e9chet (ZF) distribution to model the extreme, heavy\u2010tailed nature of cholera outbreak sizes. Furthermore, the proposed model is linked to both public health and actuarial risk. We demonstrate that the ZF provides a superior fit to cholera case data compared to traditional distributions.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Data was collected from both primary sources (such as the Ghana Health Service) and secondary sources. The SIR model employs differential equations in modeling. The results of the simulation study showed that as the sample size was increased, the standard error and bias created by the novel Zubair\u2010Fr\u00e9chet distribution's parameters decreased while depicting a cholera outbreak. The paper finds that the Zubair\u2010Fr\u00e9chet distribution is more robust compared to some existing distributions, such as the Fr\u00e9chet and Weibull distributions. Additionally, a number of actuarial properties were determined, and the maximum likelihood technique was used to estimate model parameters.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Findings from the study show that parameter values of infectious contact rate (beta\u2009=\u20090.004) and recovery rate (gamma\u2009=\u20090.999) make the control strategy effective. ZF fits better than the Fr\u00e9chet\/Weibull distribution, as evidenced from the goodness\u2010of\u2010fit table. Furthermore, vaccination reduces transmission evidenced from the data showing less to no cases after vaccination. The results from this simulation could help guide the Ministry of Health and the Ghana Health Service's response to be able to deploy the necessary logistics, update preparedness, and response plans for the country as the rainy season begins. Industry practitioners may apply this family of distributions to microbiology, public health, and targeted interventions to reduce case fatality rates. Additionally, professionals in the insurance industry can apply our model in insurance value\u2010at\u2010risk and tail value\u2010at\u2010risk for fair premium pricing.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1002\/hsr2.72380","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,11]],"date-time":"2026-05-11T03:40:31Z","timestamp":1778470831000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Ordinary Differential Equation Modeling and a Novel Zubair\u2010Fr\u00e9chet Distribution for Cholera in Ghana With Control Strategies"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"9","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0956-7906","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Kofi Afriyie","family":"Nyamekye","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Professional Studies Accra Ghana"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Eric","family":"Sampane\u2010Donkor","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Ghana Medical School Accra Ghana"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Joseph","family":"Quarshie","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Professional Studies Accra Ghana"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Franklin","family":"Asiedu\u2010Bekoe","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Public Health Division Accra Ghana"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Azuma","family":"Abdul\u2010Tawab","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Public Health Division Accra Ghana"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1384-2461","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Justice Moses K.","family":"Aheto","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Ghana Accra Ghana"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,10]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_13_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.6339\/JDS.2014.12(1).1210"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/2195-5832-1-8"},{"issue":"5","key":"e_1_2_13_4_1","first-page":"3812","article-title":"The Kumaraswamy\u2010Transmuted Exponentiated Modified Weibull Distribution","volume":"46","author":"Al\u2010Babtain A.","year":"2017","journal-title":"Communications in Statistics \u2010 Simulation and Computation"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_5_1","first-page":"1","volume-title":"Essai d'une nouvelle analyse de la mortalit\u00e9 caus\u00e9e par la petite v\u00e9role et des avantages de l'inoculation pour la pr\u00e9venir","author":"Bernoulli D.","year":"1766"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_6_1","unstructured":"W.ShawandI.Buckley(2007).The Alchemy of Probability Distributions: Beyond Gram\u2010Charlier Expansions and a Skew\u2010Kurtotic\u2010Normal Distribution From a Rank Transmutation Map Research Report."},{"key":"e_1_2_13_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1579\/0044-7447(2007)36[350:csahfa]2.0.co;2"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_8_1","volume-title":"Cholera Worldwide Overview","author":"European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC)","year":"2024"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"O.El DeebandA.Matar(2024). 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