{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,14]],"date-time":"2026-09-14T10:03:08Z","timestamp":1789380188751,"version":"build-2803163510"},"reference-count":36,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"7","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,1]],"date-time":"2026-07-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1782864000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,1]],"date-time":"2026-07-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1782864000000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Health Science Reports"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,7]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Background and Aims<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>\n                      Hydatid cyst disease caused by\n                      <jats:italic>Echinococcus granulosus<\/jats:italic>\n                      poses a major zoonotic threat in Iran, especially in rural and pastoral areas. It causes considerable public health and economic costs due to high treatment expenses, decreased livestock productivity, and carcass condemnation.\n                    <\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>We applied the illness\u2010death model (IDM) by incorporating remission to simulate disease dynamics and project the age\u2010standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) by sex at the national level and across 31 provinces of Iran. The model was calibrated using historical data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD).<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Nationally, ASPR is projected to decline from 8.87 in 2021 to 7.3 (6.9\u20137.7) by 2040, reflecting a 17.7% reduction. Females experience a sharper decline (\u221225.4%) than males (\u221211.6%), despite higher initial prevalence. By 2040, Gilan, Isfahan, Lorestan, and Ilam will have the highest ASPRs, while Sistan and Baluchistan, Kermanshah, and South Khorasan will have the lowest. Provincial declines vary, with the steepest in Sistan and Baluchistan (\u221228.7%), Kermanshah (\u221227.1%), and South Khorasan (\u221226.7%); Isfahan, Gilan, and Lorestan will see the smallest declines.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Iran has made notable progress in controlling CE, but geographic and sex\u2010based disparities persist due to socioecological and cultural differences. Success requires integrating zoonotic control with community\u2010driven approaches. By focusing on pastoral vaccination, urban dog management, and culturally tailored education, Iran can shift from reducing prevalence to achieving elimination.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1002\/hsr2.72725","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,2]],"date-time":"2026-07-02T06:20:53Z","timestamp":1782973253000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Future Projection of Cystic Echinococcosis in Iran to 2040: A Secondary Analysis Based on Global Burden of Disease (2021)"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"9","author":[{"given":"Behrooz","family":"Ahmadi","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases Research Center Research Institute for Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5011-1380","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Meysam","family":"Olfatifar","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Gastroenterology and Hepatology Diseases Research Center Qom University of Medical Sciences Qom Iran"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2636-0824","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Milad","family":"Badri","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Medical Microbiology Research Center Qazvin University of Medical Sciences Qazvin Iran"},{"name":"Student Research Committee Qazvin University of Medical Sciences Qazvin Iran"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mohammad Reza","family":"Ghadir","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Gastroenterology and Hepatology Diseases Research Center Qom University of Medical Sciences Qom Iran"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,1]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_13_2_1","first-page":"2","article-title":"Unusual Locations of the Hydatid Cyst: A Review From Iran","volume":"38","author":"Geramizadeh B.","year":"2013","journal-title":"Iranian Journal of Medical Sciences"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1128\/CMR.16.1.18-36.2003"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2008.03.037"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_5_1","first-page":"587","article-title":"Human Hydatidosis in Alborz Province: A 5\u2010Year Retrospective Epidemiological Analysis of Hospitalized Cases (2014\u20102019)","volume":"66","author":"Omidinia N.","year":"2020","journal-title":"Annals of Parasitology"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0013382"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_7_1","volume-title":"Abdominal Surgery","author":"Abdennour R. 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