{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,17]],"date-time":"2026-02-17T22:41:49Z","timestamp":1771368109630,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":22,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2008,10,9]],"date-time":"2008-10-09T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1223510400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Intl Journal of Cancer"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2009,1,15]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>Others have argued that as many as a third of women treated for high\u2010grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) would have developed cervical cancer in the absence of screening and treatment. Under various assumptions and using past data on CIN grade 3 (CIN3) registrations in England and Scotland, we estimate what cervical cancer rates would have been in the absence of screening. Data on registrations of cervical carcinoma <jats:italic>in situ<\/jats:italic> for England and Scotland were used to project the additional numbers of invasive cervical cancers that would have resulted had the carcinoma <jats:italic>in situ<\/jats:italic> not been treated. We compare the resulting cervical cancer rates (under different models) with rates recorded in Cancer Incidence in 5 Continents. In order for the projected rates in England and Scotland at ages 20\u201324 not to be exceptionally high compared to maximum recorded rates for each registry in Cancer Incidence in 5 Continents, the progression rate from CIN3 to invasive cancer in women aged 20\u201324 should not exceed 1% per year. Similar progression rates were reasonable for women aged 25\u201329. Under the previously accepted assumption of 4.33% progression per year, cervical cancer rates in women aged 20\u201329 in both England and Scotland would have been 2\u20135 times greater than any observed rate (other than one registry, based on just 4 cases). From this analysis, at most 1.5% of women treated (equivalent to 3% of CIN3 registrations) would have had cancer by age 25, whereas it is reasonable to assume that over half of them would have regressed by age 25. \u00a9 2008 Wiley\u2010Liss, Inc.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/ijc.23922","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2008,10,9]],"date-time":"2008-10-09T14:58:14Z","timestamp":1223564294000},"page":"461-464","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":36,"title":["How many cervical cancers are prevented by treatment of screen\u2010detected disease in young women?"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"124","author":[{"given":"Peter","family":"Sasieni","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Alejandra","family":"Castanon","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"D. Max","family":"Parkin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2008,11,14]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_6_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/sj.bjc.6600974"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/bjc.1996.196"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/sj.bjc.6601754"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/jnci\/djn099"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_6_2","unstructured":"Health and Social Care Information Centre Cervical Screening Program England: 2004\u20132005. Community Health Statistics NHS Health and Social Care Information Centre 2005."},{"key":"e_1_2_6_7_2","unstructured":"ParkinDM WhelanSL FerlayJ StormH.Cancer incidence in five continents vols.I\u2013VIII. Available athttp:\/\/www.dep.iarc.fr\/(accessed May2008)."},{"key":"e_1_2_6_8_2","series-title":"Cancer incidence in five continents","author":"Curado MP","year":"2007"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_9_2","volume-title":"Cancer statistics registrations","year":"1990"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_10_2","volume-title":"Cancer statistics registration","year":"1995"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_11_2","volume-title":"Cervical Screening Programme","year":"1997"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_12_2","unstructured":"Information Services Division Scotland. Annual registrations of CIN3 in Scotland for 1980\u20132004. Available atwww.isdscotland.org\/isd\/files\/cancer_cervix\u2010insitu_inc.xls(accessed March 30 2008)."},{"key":"e_1_2_6_13_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1471-0528.1985.tb01067.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_14_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1783\/147118908783332078"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_15_2","first-page":"451","article-title":"The invasive potential of carcinoma in situ of the cervix","volume":"64","author":"McIndoe WA","year":"1984","journal-title":"Obstet Gynecol"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_16_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S1470-2045(08)70103-7"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_17_2","first-page":"1","article-title":"A cohort study of cervical cancer screening in British Columbia","volume":"5","author":"Boyes DA","year":"1982","journal-title":"Clin Invest Med"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_18_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1471-0528.1992.tb13825.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_19_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1471-0528.1989.tb03381.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_20_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/bjc.1985.78"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_21_2","series-title":"Mathematical models and natural history in cervical cancer screening","author":"Prorock PC","year":"1986"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_22_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/bjc.1996.441"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_23_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1158\/1055-9965.EPI-07-0278"}],"container-title":["International Journal of Cancer"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/api.wiley.com\/onlinelibrary\/tdm\/v1\/articles\/10.1002%2Fijc.23922","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/ijc.23922","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2023,10,14]],"date-time":"2023-10-14T15:02:14Z","timestamp":1697295734000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1002\/ijc.23922"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2008,11,14]]},"references-count":22,"journal-issue":{"issue":"2","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2009,1,15]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1002\/ijc.23922"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/ijc.23922","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["0020-7136","1097-0215"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0020-7136","type":"print"},{"value":"1097-0215","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2008,11,14]]}}}