{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,17]],"date-time":"2026-10-17T13:09:18Z","timestamp":1792242558673,"version":"4.4.0"},"reference-count":46,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2015,8,13]],"date-time":"2015-08-13T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1439424000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"funder":[{"name":"Grant-in-Aid for the Third-Term Comprehensive Ten-Year Strategy for Cancer Control","award":["H24-3jigan-ippan-002"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["H24-3jigan-ippan-002"]}]},{"name":"National Cancer Center Research and Development Fund","award":["23-A-31 [toku] and 26-A-2"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["23-A-31 [toku] and 26-A-2"]}]},{"name":"National Cancer Center Research and Development Fund","award":["27-A-4"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["27-A-4"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Intl Journal of Cancer"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2016,1,15]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>\n                    Gastric cancer is a particularly important issue in Japan, where incidence rates are among the highest observed. In this work, we provide a risk prediction model allowing the estimation of the 10\u2010year cumulative probability of gastric cancer occurrence. The study population consisted of 19,028 individuals from the Japanese Public Health Center cohort II who were followed\u2010up from 1993 to 2009. A parametric survival model was used to assess the impact on the probability of gastric cancer of clinical and lifestyle\u2010related risk factors in combination with serum anti\u2010\n                    <jats:italic>Helicobacter pylori<\/jats:italic>\n                    antibody titres and pepsinogen I and pepsinogen II levels. Based on the resulting model, cumulative probability estimates were calculated and a simple risk scoring system was developed. A total of 412 cases of gastric cancer occurred during 270,854 person\u2010years of follow\u2010up. The final model included (besides the biological markers) age, gender, smoking status, family history of gastric cancer and consumption of highly salted food. The developed prediction model showed good predictive performance in terms of discrimination (optimism\u2010corrected\n                    <jats:italic>c<\/jats:italic>\n                    \u2010index: 0.768) and calibration (Nam and d'Agostino's\n                    <jats:italic>\u03c7<\/jats:italic>\n                    <jats:sup>2<\/jats:sup>\n                    test: 14.78;\n                    <jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\n                    values\u2009=\u20090.06). Estimates of the 10\u2010year probability of gastric cancer occurrence ranged from 0.04% (0.02, 0.1) to 14.87% (8.96, 24.14) for men and from 0.03% (0.02, 0.07) to 4.91% (2.71, 8.81) for women. In conclusion, we developed a risk prediction model for gastric cancer that combines clinical and biological markers. It might prompt individuals to modify their lifestyle habits, attend regular check\u2010up visits or participate in screening programmes.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/ijc.29705","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2015,7,28]],"date-time":"2015-07-28T21:27:29Z","timestamp":1438118849000},"page":"320-331","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":81,"title":["Prediction of the 10\u2010year probability of gastric cancer occurrence in the\n                    <scp>J<\/scp>\n                    apanese population: the\n                    <scp>JPHC<\/scp>\n                    study cohort\n                    <scp>II<\/scp>"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"138","author":[{"given":"Hadrien","family":"Charvat","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Epidemiology and Prevention Group Research Center for Cancer Prevention and Screening, National Cancer Center Tokyo Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Shizuka","family":"Sasazuki","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Epidemiology and Prevention Group Research Center for Cancer Prevention and Screening, National Cancer Center Tokyo Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Manami","family":"Inoue","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Epidemiology and Prevention Group Research Center for Cancer Prevention and Screening, National Cancer Center Tokyo Japan"},{"name":"AXA Department of Health and Human Security Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo Tokyo Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Motoki","family":"Iwasaki","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Epidemiology and Prevention Group Research Center for Cancer Prevention and Screening, National Cancer Center Tokyo Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Norie","family":"Sawada","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Epidemiology and Prevention Group Research Center for Cancer Prevention and Screening, National Cancer Center Tokyo Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Taichi","family":"Shimazu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Epidemiology and Prevention Group Research Center for Cancer Prevention and Screening, National Cancer Center Tokyo Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Taiki","family":"Yamaji","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Epidemiology and Prevention Group Research Center for Cancer Prevention and Screening, National Cancer Center Tokyo Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Shoichiro","family":"Tsugane","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Epidemiology and Prevention Group Research Center for Cancer Prevention and Screening, National Cancer Center Tokyo Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"name":"for the JPHC Study Group","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2015,8,13]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_7_2_1","unstructured":"FerlayJ SoerjomataramI ErvikM et al. GLOBOCAN 2012 v1.0 cancer incidence and mortality worldwide: IARC CancerBase No. 11 [Internet]. Lyon France: International Agency for Research on Cancer 2013. Available at:http:\/\/globocan.iarc.fr(Accessed September 3 2014)."},{"key":"e_1_2_7_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/pgmj.2004.029330"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_4_1","unstructured":"Cancer Statistics in Japan 2014. 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