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Temporal changes in cervical cancer profiles in this unique situation have not been fully investigated epidemiologically. Our study aimed to determine the current status and future trends of the incidence and mortality of cervical cancer and precancerous lesions in Japan. Mortality rates of cervical cancer during 1975 to 2016 and incidence rates of cervical cancer and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) 3 during 1975 to 2013 were examined using vital statistics and population\u2010based cancer registry data in Japan. Bayesian age\u2010period\u2010cohort analyses were performed to analyze temporal changes of the three cervical cancer\u2010related outcomes. We also calculated projections to 2028 for the three outcomes, assuming that HPV vaccination coverage and screening rates in Japan would be maintained at the current level after the resumption of the national vaccination program. The risk of occurrence of the three outcomes showed similar changes by birth cohort, peaking in the mid\u20101890s to 1900s birth cohorts, declining sharply in the 1940s birth cohort, and persistently increasing in the 1950s and later birth cohorts. Projections to 2028 show increases in cervical cancer incidence and mortality in the 30 to 69 age group, with a particular increase in CIN3 incidence in the 25 to 49 age group, if HPV vaccine programs and screening are not effectively implemented. These findings revealed an increasing cervical disease burden among reproductive age females in Japan.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/ijc.34391","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,12,5]],"date-time":"2022-12-05T08:38:21Z","timestamp":1670229501000},"page":"1863-1874","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":9,"title":["Trends and future projections of cervical cancer\u2010related outcomes in Japan: What happens if the HPV vaccine program is not implemented?"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"152","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0365-9420","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Atsuko","family":"Sakakibara","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Preventive Medicine Tazuke Kofukai, Medical Research Institute, Kitano Hospital  Osaka Japan"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7918-6252","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Takeo","family":"Nakayama","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Health Informatics Kyoto University School of Public Health  Kyoto Japan"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Hiroyuki","family":"Uchida","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Clinical Dietetics and Human Nutrition Graduate School of Pharmaceutical Sciences Josai University  Saitama Japan"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5238-8575","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Youichi","family":"Odagiri","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Graduate School of Nursing Yamanashi Prefectural University  Yamanashi Japan"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1407-2393","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Yuri","family":"Ito","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Medical Statistics Research &amp; 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