{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,5,13]],"date-time":"2025-05-13T15:13:34Z","timestamp":1747149214415,"version":"3.40.5"},"reference-count":24,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"10","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,2,1]],"date-time":"2023-02-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1675209600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000289","name":"Cancer Research UK","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["C8162\/A25356","C8162\/A27047"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["C8162\/A25356","C8162\/A27047"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000289","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Intl Journal of Cancer"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2023,5,15]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>Extending screening intervals in ongoing cancer screening programmes can lead to challenging year\u2010on\u2010year variations in the number of screening tests. We explored how such variation could be diminished with a managed transition to the extended interval. We defined three extension scenarios: immediate extension for the entire target population; stepped transition by birth cohort; and gradual transition by reducing the number of available screening appointments. These were compared to a situation in which the interval remains unchanged in a demographic model covering a 15\u2010year period. The model was populated with observed parameters from England, a real\u2010world setting recommending cervical screening with 3\u2010year intervals at age 25\u201049 and 5\u2010year intervals at age 50\u201064. Informed by typical changes currently considered by several European programmes including the programme in England, we explored the effect on screening test numbers of an extension of the 3\u2010year interval to 5\u2009years for women younger than 50. All three extension scenarios resulted in similar cumulative numbers of screening tests, which were about 30% lower compared to a situation in which the interval would remain unchanged. However, the year\u2010on\u2010year variation in the number of screening tests varied between the scenarios. This variation was around 4\u2010fold for the immediate scenario. In the stepped scenario, the yearly numbers could differ by around 20%, whereas in the gradual scenario they were virtually constant. A managed interval extension, transitioning different groups of the target population at different times, can substantially reduce the yearly variation in screening workload without increasing the total number of screening tests in the long term.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/ijc.34441","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,1,24]],"date-time":"2023-01-24T08:49:27Z","timestamp":1674550167000},"page":"2061-2068","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Managing an extension of screening intervals: Avoiding boom and bust in health care workloads"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"152","author":[{"given":"Francesca","family":"Pesola","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Cancer Prevention Group, School of Cancer and Pharmaceutical Sciences Faculty of Life Sciences and Medicine, King's College London  London UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9597-645X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Matejka","family":"Rebolj","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Cancer Prevention Group, School of Cancer and Pharmaceutical Sciences Faculty of Life Sciences and Medicine, King's College London  London UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Peter","family":"Sasieni","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Cancer Prevention Group, School of Cancer and Pharmaceutical Sciences Faculty of Life Sciences and Medicine, King's College London  London UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,2]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_11_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.b2968"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_3_1","unstructured":"Public Health Wales.Cervical Screening Wales: Annual Statistical Reports 2014\u201015 2015\u201016 2016\u201017 2017\u201018 2018\u201019.https:\/\/phw.nhs.wales\/services-and-teams\/cervical-screening-wales\/information-resources\/programme-reports\/csw-annual-statistical-reports\/. 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