{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,21]],"date-time":"2026-07-21T01:46:47Z","timestamp":1784598407985,"version":"3.55.0"},"reference-count":58,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,9,4]],"date-time":"2025-09-04T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1756944000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Intl Journal of Cancer"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,15]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>\n                    Population aging is an increasing challenge for cancer control in rapidly aging societies, yet remains inadequately quantified. We aim to project and illustrate the cancer burden attributable to aging in Korea by utilizing age\u2010period\u2010cohort (APC) models and population attributable fraction (PAF) concepts. From population\u2010based cancer data, incidence and mortality of cancers primarily affected by aging (stomach, colorectal, liver, gallbladder, pancreatic, lung, non\u2010Hodgkin lymphoma, esophagus, prostate, ovarian, male bladder cancers, and female leukemia) and breast cancer were extracted. Aging\u2010attributable fraction, cases, and deaths were estimated for older ages after projection to 2046 by APC models. Future cancer landscapes were projected to evolve due to population aging. While aging\u2010related lung cancer may remain the highest (from 2017\u20132021: 94,990 cases, 71,726 deaths, PAF\n                    <jats:sub>mortality<\/jats:sub>\n                    78%; to 2042\u20132046: 220,251 cases, PAF\n                    <jats:sub>incidence<\/jats:sub>\n                    78%, 114,476 deaths, PAF\n                    <jats:sub>mortality<\/jats:sub>\n                    88%), the current high burden of stomach and liver cancers, likely related to infection, will shift to older age with reduced aging\u2010attributable cases but increased PAF\n                    <jats:sub>incidence<\/jats:sub>\n                    . Emerging burden will arise from lifestyle\u2010related cancers, including colorectal cancer mortality (mortality\u2010to\u2010incidence ratio [MIR] of age \u226565 0.41 to 0.46) and prostate and breast cancer incidence (for age \u226565: 60,099 to 228,539 cases, PAF\n                    <jats:sub>incidence<\/jats:sub>\n                    74% to 86%; and 1316 to 31,874 cases, PAF\n                    <jats:sub>incidence<\/jats:sub>\n                    1% to 22%, respectively). Our findings highlight the coexistence of traditional and emerging burdens, which should be key priorities for cancer control programs when societies enter the upcoming super\u2010aged decades. Efforts to mitigate forecasted trends are urgently required, including cancer prevention targeting middle\u2010aged adults and cancer care for frail older patients.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/ijc.70125","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,9,4]],"date-time":"2025-09-04T10:03:42Z","timestamp":1756980222000},"page":"951-962","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Projected cancer burden attributable to population aging: Insight from a rapidly aging society"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"158","author":[{"given":"Minh\u2010Thao","family":"Tu","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Public Health and AI National Cancer Center Graduate School of Cancer Science and Policy  Goyang Republic of Korea"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hoejun","family":"Kwon","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Public Health and AI National Cancer Center Graduate School of Cancer Science and Policy  Goyang Republic of Korea"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yoon\u2010Jung","family":"Choi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Public Health and AI National Cancer Center Graduate School of Cancer Science and Policy  Goyang Republic of Korea"},{"name":"National Cancer Control Institute, National Cancer Center  Goyang Republic of Korea"},{"name":"Center for Cancer Prevention and Detection, National Cancer Center Hospital  Goyang Republic of Korea"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3261-3114","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Hyunsoon","family":"Cho","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Public Health and AI National Cancer Center Graduate School of Cancer Science and Policy  Goyang Republic of Korea"},{"name":"Intergrated Biostatistics Branch, Division of Cancer Data Science, Research Institute, National Cancer Center  Goyang Republic of Korea"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,9,4]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_11_2_1","unstructured":"KOSIS. Korea National Statistical Portal.Korean Statistical Information Service.2024https:\/\/kosis.kr\/index\/index.do"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140\u20106736(16)32381\u20109"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4143\/crt.2024.253"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3322\/caac.21834"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140\u20106736(20)30925\u20109"},{"issue":"1","key":"e_1_2_11_7_1","first-page":"A14","article-title":"What does the population attributable fraction mean?","volume":"4","author":"Levine B","year":"2007","journal-title":"Prev Chronic Dis"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3322\/caac.21858"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/ajco.13950"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598\u2010021\u201004564\u20102"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envint.2018.09.055"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.k134"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41416\u2010019\u20100721\u20101"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.mad.2020.111244"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.arr.2022.101807"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.breast.2020.08.010"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/bmb\/ldw050"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.critrevonc.2007.09.001"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.1481"},{"issue":"3","key":"e_1_2_11_20_1","first-page":"531","article-title":"The occurrence of lung cancer in man","volume":"9","author":"Levin ML","year":"1953","journal-title":"Acta Union Int Contra Cancrum"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.20892\/j.issn.2095\u20103941.2021.0538"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S2468\u20102667(22)00111\u20106"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_23_1","unstructured":"R Core Team.R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing.2021https:\/\/www.R-project.org\/"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_24_1","unstructured":"Joinpoint Regression Program. Version 5.0.2. Statistical Methodology and Applications Branch Surveillance Research Program.2023."},{"key":"e_1_2_11_25_1","unstructured":"Trends in current smoking rates in all adults and by sex. National Cancer Center Korea.https:\/\/www.cancerdata.re.kr\/surveillance\/en\/data?menuId=27"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_26_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjopen\u20102021\u2010058903"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_27_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41586\u2010023\u201005874\u20103"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_28_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4046\/trd.2020.0134"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_29_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4132\/jptm.2015.09.14"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_30_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3350\/cmh.2017.0112"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_31_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3904\/kjim.2019.007"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_32_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5230\/jgc.2022.22.e21"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_33_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598\u2010021\u201081877\u20102"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_34_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4143\/crt.2017.162"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_35_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4048\/jbc.2023.26.e27"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_36_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10549\u2010018\u20104947\u2010z"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_37_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/ageing\/afad043"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_38_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S1470\u20102045(18)30095\u20100"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_39_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12979\u2010017\u20100112\u20105"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_40_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tcb.2022.01.004"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_41_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/jncics\/pkaa109"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_42_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.exger.2006.09.016"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_43_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3748\/wjg.v16.i11.1304"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_44_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/ijms20051146"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_45_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S1470\u20102045(24)00142\u20106"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_46_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S2666\u20107568(24)00087\u20104"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_47_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/ageing\/afae268"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_48_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jamanetworkopen.2020.16747"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_49_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/acel.13439"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_50_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s13148\u2010021\u201001038\u20100"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_51_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.18632\/aging.202913"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_52_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.amepre.2013.10.029"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_53_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/ageing\/afx201"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_54_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/cncr.30819"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_55_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/cncr.31049"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_56_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10549\u2010017\u20104276\u20107"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_57_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41366\u2010020\u20100523\u20109"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_58_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41571\u2010022\u201000672\u20108"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_59_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4178\/epih.e2022053"}],"container-title":["International Journal of Cancer"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/ijc.70125","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,18]],"date-time":"2025-12-18T05:24:05Z","timestamp":1766035445000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1002\/ijc.70125"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,9,4]]},"references-count":58,"journal-issue":{"issue":"4","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,15]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1002\/ijc.70125"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/ijc.70125","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["0020-7136","1097-0215"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0020-7136","type":"print"},{"value":"1097-0215","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,9,4]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2025-04-24","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2025-08-22","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2025-09-04","order":3,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}]}}