{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,13]],"date-time":"2026-02-13T16:55:23Z","timestamp":1771001723188,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":39,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"5","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,9,12]],"date-time":"2025-09-12T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1757635200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Intl Journal of Cancer"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,3]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>The rising thyroid cancer (TC) incidence is largely attributed to overdiagnosis, primarily due to widespread use of sensitive imaging technologies. Prior estimates of overdiagnosis relied on generalized assumptions that may not account for population\u2010specific risk exposures and diagnostic trends. This study aims to provide more accurate estimates by addressing previous methodological limitations. In this population\u2010based study, we obtained aggregated data on the incidence and mortality of TC during 2000 to 2019 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results 22 (SEER\u201022) and SEER\u201017. The age\u2010standardized incidence (ASIR) and mortality rates (ASMR) were calculated by sex, histology, stage, and 5\u2010year periods. Overdiagnosis rates were estimated using population\u2010specific parameters derived from the multistage model of carcinogenesis. The ASIR of papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) and non\u2010PTC increased rapidly in both men and women during 2000 to 2014 and stabilized thereafter, whereas the ASMR remained relatively unchanged. The overdiagnosis was mainly observed for differentiated TC subtypes, including PTC and follicular TC. A total of 50,239 (63.5%) men and 203,429 (79.5%) women cases of PTC were attributable to overdiagnosis, accounting for 73.9% of early\u2010stage PTC in men and 85.2% in women. In contrast, no significant overdiagnosis was observed for non\u2010PTC overall, with an 11.0% underdiagnosis rate in men and a 19.2% overdiagnosis rate in women. This study presents refined estimates of TC overdiagnosis and highlights the continued impact of early detection on incidence trends. The findings support the need for risk stratification for TC screening and management to minimize the potential overtreatment while ensuring the timely detection of clinically significant cases.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/ijc.70143","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,9,12]],"date-time":"2025-09-12T14:52:34Z","timestamp":1757688754000},"page":"1215-1226","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":2,"title":["Overdiagnosis of thyroid cancer in the United States: Improved estimates based on the\n                    <scp>SEER<\/scp>\n                    registries during 2000\u20132019"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"158","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9044-3961","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Minlu","family":"Zhang","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Epidemiology, NHC Key Laboratory for Health Technology Assessment Fudan University School of Public Health  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China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2045-2218","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Wanghong","family":"Xu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Epidemiology, NHC Key Laboratory for Health Technology Assessment Fudan University School of Public Health  Shanghai China"},{"name":"Yiwu Research Institute of Fudan University  Yiwu 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