{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,12]],"date-time":"2026-10-12T22:57:28Z","timestamp":1791845848278,"version":"4.3.4"},"reference-count":33,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2008,6,2]],"date-time":"2008-06-02T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1212364800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":1,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["J of Applied Econometrics"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2008,6]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>Logistic smooth transition and Markov switching autoregressive models of a logistic transform of the monthly US unemployment rate are estimated by Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The Markov switching model is identified by constraining the first autoregression coefficient to differ across regimes. The transition variable in the LSTAR model is the lagged seasonal difference of the unemployment rate. Out\u2010of\u2010sample forecasts are obtained from Bayesian predictive densities. Although both models provide very similar descriptions, Bayes factors and predictive efficiency tests (both Bayesian and classical) favor the smooth transition model. Copyright \u00a9 2008 John Wiley &amp; Sons, Ltd.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/jae.1014","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2008,6,2]],"date-time":"2008-06-02T12:19:18Z","timestamp":1212409158000},"page":"435-462","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":59,"title":["Comparing smooth transition and Markov switching autoregressive models of US unemployment"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"23","author":[{"given":"Philippe J.","family":"Deschamps","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2008,6,2]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_11_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1391303"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2938229"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1198\/07350010152596718"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/(SICI)1099-1255(199805\/06)13:3<283::AID-JAE469>3.0.CO;2-S"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/jae.686"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/0960310022000029295"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0304-4076(95)01770-4"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1198\/016214501750332848"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jeconom.2005.03.012"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1392185"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2527342"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0304-4076(97)00096-1"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1198\/016214501750333063"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1368-423X.2004.00125.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_16_1","volume-title":"Finite Mixture and Markov Switching Models","author":"Fr\u00fchwirth\u2010Schnatter S","year":"2006"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"501","DOI":"10.1111\/j.2517-6161.1994.tb01996.x","article-title":"Bayesian model choice: asymptotics and exact calculations","volume":"56","author":"Gelfand AE","year":"1994","journal-title":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, B"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4899-4485-6_11"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/for.3980030207"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1515\/9780691218632","volume-title":"Time Series Analysis","author":"Hamilton JD","year":"1994"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_21_1","volume-title":"Theory of Probability","author":"Jeffreys H","year":"1961"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1198\/073500104000000505"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_23_1","volume-title":"Bayesian Econometrics","author":"Koop G","year":"2003"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1392288"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_25_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-9892.2005.00455.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_26_1","first-page":"831","article-title":"Simulating ratios of normalizing constants via a simple identity: a theoretical exploration","volume":"6","author":"Meng XL","year":"1996","journal-title":"Statistica Sinica"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_27_1","first-page":"603","article-title":"Bridge estimation of the probability density at a point","volume":"14","author":"Mira A","year":"2004","journal-title":"Statistica Sinica"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_28_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.1998.10473696"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_29_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1162\/003465398557276"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_30_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jeconom.2005.07.005"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_31_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.1994.10476462"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_32_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1214\/aos\/1176325750"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_33_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1081\/ETC-120008723"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_34_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2527340"}],"container-title":["Journal of Applied Econometrics"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/api.wiley.com\/onlinelibrary\/tdm\/v1\/articles\/10.1002%2Fjae.1014","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/jae.1014","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,30]],"date-time":"2025-01-30T14:42:23Z","timestamp":1738248143000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1002\/jae.1014"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2008,6]]},"references-count":33,"journal-issue":{"issue":"4","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2008,6]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1002\/jae.1014"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/jae.1014","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["0883-7252","1099-1255"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0883-7252","type":"print"},{"value":"1099-1255","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2008,6]]}}}