{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,3]],"date-time":"2026-06-03T08:35:06Z","timestamp":1780475706754,"version":"3.54.1"},"reference-count":31,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"7","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2010,4,14]],"date-time":"2010-04-14T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1271203200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["J of Applied Econometrics"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2011,11]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>Since empirical studies have shown that cannabis users are much more likely to initiate hard drug use, a causal linkage has been suggested (\u2018gateway hypothesis\u2019). However, individual differences in proneness and accessibility to drugs provide alternative non\u2010causal explanations for the observed drug use pattern. We propose a Bayesian estimation and predictive framework to analyze the effects and relative importance of previous cannabis use, proneness and accessibility factors on hard drug initiation and to explore possible policy implications. We employ a novel model specification, motivated by four gateway transmission channels, to analyze data from a recent Norwegian survey of young adults. Copyright \u00a9 2010 John Wiley &amp; Sons, Ltd.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/jae.1160","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2010,4,14]],"date-time":"2010-04-14T07:47:11Z","timestamp":1271231231000},"page":"1157-1186","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":7,"title":["Climbing the drug staircase: a Bayesian analysis of the initiation of hard drug use"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"26","author":[{"given":"Anne Line","family":"Bretteville\u2010Jensen","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Liana","family":"Jacobi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2011,10,24]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_9_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.1993.10476321"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0167-6296(02)00009-7"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00181-004-0205-9"},{"issue":"2","key":"e_1_2_9_5_1","article-title":"Sequential patterns of drug use initiation: can we believe in the gateway theory?","volume":"8","author":"Bretteville\u2010Jensen AL","year":"2008","journal-title":"BE Journal of Economic Analysis and Policy (Contributions)"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jeconom.2006.07.009"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2684568"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/biomet\/85.2.347"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jeconom.2006.07.014"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhealeco.2004.02.001"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_11_1","first-page":"149","article-title":"Is marijuana a gateway drug?","volume":"24","author":"DeSimone J","year":"1998","journal-title":"Eastern Economic Journal"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/sj.npp.1301127"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_13_1","unstructured":"EMCDDA.2007.Annual report 2007: the state of the drugs problem in Europe. 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