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This makes transparent the heterogeneity of the panel and avoids improper inferences due to changing panel composition. In the absence of knowledge of the process determining panel composition, we warn against the traditional practice of aggregate time series analysis, which conflates changes in the expectations of individual forecasters with changes in the composition of the panel. Should analysis of aggregated predictions be thought desirable as a simplifying device, we recommend analyses of sub\u2010panels of fixed composition. Copyright \u00a9 2010 John Wiley &amp; Sons, Ltd.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/jae.1206","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2010,9,8]],"date-time":"2010-09-08T08:03:01Z","timestamp":1283932981000},"page":"1059-1078","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":47,"title":["Assessing the temporal variation of macroeconomic forecasts by a panel of changing composition"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"26","author":[{"given":"Joseph","family":"Engelberg","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Charles F.","family":"Manski","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jared","family":"Williams","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2010,9,7]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_8_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0165-1765(93)00320-N"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.econlet.2005.12.009"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1353\/mcb.2003.0024"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1198\/073500106000000558"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1198\/jbes.2009.07211"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0304-4076(94)01649-K"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511493140.011"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"EngelbergJ ManskiCF WilliamsJ.2006.Comparing the point predictions and subjective probability distributions of professional forecasters. 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