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We substantially update the literature on empirical determinants of black market rates and evaluate the out\u2010of\u2010sample performance of linear models and non\u2010parametric Bayesian treed Gaussian process (BTGP) models against the random walk benchmark. Fundamentals\u2010based models outperform the benchmark in out\u2010of\u2010sample prediction accuracy and trading rule profitability measures given future values of fundamentals. In simulated real\u2010time trading exercises, however, the BTGP achieves superior realized profitability, accuracy and market timing, while linear models do no better than a random walk. 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