{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,21]],"date-time":"2026-09-21T04:43:56Z","timestamp":1789965836741,"version":"4.0.1"},"reference-count":21,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2013,3,21]],"date-time":"2013-03-21T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1363824000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["J of Applied Econometrics"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2014,4]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>SUMMARY<\/jats:title><jats:p>This paper examines the asymptotic and finite\u2010sample properties of tests of equal forecast accuracy when the models being compared are overlapping in the sense of Vuong (<jats:italic>Econometrica<\/jats:italic> 1989; <jats:bold>57<\/jats:bold>: 307\u2013333). Two models are overlapping when the true model contains just a subset of variables common to the larger sets of variables included in the competing forecasting models. We consider an out\u2010of\u2010sample version of the two\u2010step testing procedure recommended by Vuong but also show that an exact one\u2010step procedure is sometimes applicable. When the models are overlapping, we provide a simple\u2010to\u2010use fixed\u2010regressor wild bootstrap that can be used to conduct valid inference. Monte Carlo simulations generally support the theoretical results: the two\u2010step procedure is conservative, while the one\u2010step procedure can be accurately sized when appropriate. We conclude with an empirical application comparing the predictive content of credit spreads to growth in real stock prices for forecasting US real gross domestic product growth. 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