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It is shown that mechanical removal or modeling of simple low\u2010frequency movements in the data may yield poor predictive results which depend on the model specification used. Basic NKPC models are extended to include structural time series models that describe typical time\u2010varying patterns in levels and volatilities. Forward\u2010 and backward\u2010looking expectation components for inflation are incorporated and their relative importance is evaluated. Survey data on expected inflation are introduced to strengthen the information in the likelihood. Use is made of simulation\u2010based Bayesian techniques for the empirical analysis. No credible evidence is found on endogeneity and long\u2010run stability between inflation and marginal costs. Backward\u2010looking inflation appears stronger than forward\u2010looking inflation. Levels and volatilities of inflation are estimated more precisely using rich NKPC models. The extended NKPC structures compare favorably with existing basic Bayesian vector autoregressive and stochastic volatility models in terms of fit and prediction. Tails of the complete predictive distributions indicate an increase in the probability of deflation in recent years. Copyright \u00a9 2014 John Wiley &amp; Sons, Ltd.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/jae.2411","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2014,11,18]],"date-time":"2014-11-18T11:14:55Z","timestamp":1416309295000},"page":"1164-1182","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":26,"title":["POSTERIOR\u2010PREDICTIVE EVIDENCE ON US INFLATION USING EXTENDED NEW KEYNESIAN PHILLIPS CURVE MODELS WITH NON\u2010FILTERED DATA"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"29","author":[{"given":"Nalan","family":"Ba\u015ft\u00fcrk","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Quantitative Economics Maastricht University"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Cem","family":"\u00c7akmakli","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Economics Ko\u00e7 University"},{"name":"Department of Quantitative Economics University of Amsterdam"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"S. 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