{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,18]],"date-time":"2026-09-18T13:59:36Z","timestamp":1789739976246,"version":"4.0.1"},"reference-count":32,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"7","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2016,1,21]],"date-time":"2016-01-21T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1453334400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100004963","name":"Seventh Framework Programme","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["FP7\/2007-2013"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["FP7\/2007-2013"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100004963","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100004963","name":"Seventh Framework Programme","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["SYRTO-SSH-2012-320270"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["SYRTO-SSH-2012-320270"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100004963","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100004963","name":"Seventh Framework Programme","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["Institut Europlace of Finance"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["Institut Europlace of Finance"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100004963","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100010412","name":"Global Risk Institute in Financial Services","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100010412","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["J of Applied Econometrics"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2016,11]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Summary<\/jats:title><jats:p>The proposed panel Markov\u2010switching VAR model accommodates changes in low and high data frequencies and incorporates endogenous time\u2010varying transition matrices of country\u2010specific Markov chains, allowing for interconnections. An efficient multi\u2010move sampling algorithm draws time\u2010varying Markov\u2010switching chains. Using industrial production growth and credit spread data, several important data features are obtained. Three regimes appear, with slow growth becoming persistent in the eurozone. Turning point analysis indicates the USA leading the eurozone cycle. Amplification effects influence recession probabilities for Eurozone countries. A credit shock results in temporary negative industrial production growth in Germany, Spain and the USA. Core and peripheral countries exist in the eurozone. Copyright \u00a9 2016 John Wiley &amp; Sons, Ltd.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/jae.2501","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2016,1,21]],"date-time":"2016-01-21T10:15:37Z","timestamp":1453371337000},"page":"1352-1370","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":48,"title":["Interconnections Between Eurozone and US Booms and Busts Using a Bayesian Panel Markov\u2010Switching VAR Model"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"31","author":[{"given":"Monica","family":"Billio","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"University Ca' Foscari of Venice and GRETA Associati  Venice Italy"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Roberto","family":"Casarin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University Ca' Foscari of Venice and GRETA Associati  Venice Italy"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Francesco","family":"Ravazzolo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Norges Bank and BI Norwegian Business School  Oslo Norway"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Herman K.","family":"Van Dijk","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Econometric Institute, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometrics Department VU University Amsterdam, and Tinbergen Institute  Rotterdam Netherlands"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2016,1,21]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_7_2_1","first-page":"1","volume-title":"Proceedings from the SIS 2013 Conference","author":"Amisano G","year":"2013"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jeconom.2014.01.007"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/jae.2411"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.qref.2012.08.002"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jeconom.2013.04.009"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/for.2260"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_8_1","unstructured":"BryG BoschanC.1971.Cyclical analysis of time series: selected procedures and computer programs. NBER Technical Paper 20."},{"key":"e_1_2_7_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0304-4076(03)00216-1"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1468-2354.2009.00554.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1198\/073500107000000296"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1368-423X.11004"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/mac.20140097"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0165-1765(03)00220-9"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1198\/016214501750333063"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_16_1","volume-title":"Mixture and Markov\u2010Switching Models","author":"Fr\u00fchwirth\u2010Schnatter S","year":"2006"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"GilchristS MojonB.2014.Credit risk in the euro area. NBER Working Paper No. 20041.","DOI":"10.3386\/w20041"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/aer.102.4.1692"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1912559"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"HardingD.2010.Applying shape and phase restrictions in generalized dynamic categorical models of the business cycle. NCER Working Paper Series 58 National Centre for Econometric Research.","DOI":"10.2139\/ssrn.1670504"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0304-3932(01)00108-8"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1198\/jbes.2009.08005"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/jae.1076"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jeconom.2015.02.001"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_25_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s001810100097"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_26_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0304-3932(02)00146-0"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_27_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-642-51684-9"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_28_1","unstructured":"KrolzigH\u2010M.2000.Predicting Markov\u2010switching vector autoregressive processes. Nuffield College Economics Working Papers 2000\u2010WP31."},{"key":"e_1_2_7_29_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-9892.1994.tb00208.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_30_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1787\/jbcma-2005-5km7v183t48r"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_31_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0014-2921(97)00088-3"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_32_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0304-4076(91)90014-5"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_33_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/000282806776157678"}],"container-title":["Journal of Applied Econometrics"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/api.wiley.com\/onlinelibrary\/tdm\/v1\/articles\/10.1002%2Fjae.2501","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/api.wiley.com\/onlinelibrary\/tdm\/v1\/articles\/10.1002%2Fjae.2501","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/jae.2501","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2023,9,3]],"date-time":"2023-09-03T04:15:57Z","timestamp":1693714557000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1002\/jae.2501"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2016,1,21]]},"references-count":32,"journal-issue":{"issue":"7","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2016,11]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1002\/jae.2501"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/jae.2501","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["0883-7252","1099-1255"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0883-7252","type":"print"},{"value":"1099-1255","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2016,1,21]]}}}