{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,13]],"date-time":"2025-12-13T06:48:49Z","timestamp":1765608529487},"reference-count":31,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2016,6,14]],"date-time":"2016-06-14T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1465862400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["J of Applied Econometrics"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2017,4]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Summary<\/jats:title><jats:p>Many forecasts are conditional in nature. For example, a number of central banks routinely report forecasts conditional on particular paths of policy instruments. Even though conditional forecasting is common, there has been little work on methods for evaluating conditional forecasts. This paper provides analytical, Monte Carlo and empirical evidence on tests of predictive ability for conditional forecasts from estimated models. In the empirical analysis, we examine conditional forecasts obtained with a VAR in the variables included in the DSGE model of Smets and Wouters (<jats:italic>American Economic Review<\/jats:italic> 2007; <jats:bold>97<\/jats:bold>: 586\u2013606). Throughout the analysis, we focus on tests of bias, efficiency and equal accuracy applied to conditional forecasts from VAR models. Copyright \u00a9 2016 John Wiley &amp; Sons, Ltd.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/jae.2529","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2016,6,15]],"date-time":"2016-06-15T13:22:41Z","timestamp":1465996961000},"page":"533-553","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":9,"title":["Tests of Predictive Ability for Vector Autoregressions Used for Conditional Forecasting"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"32","author":[{"given":"Todd E.","family":"Clark","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland  OH USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Michael W.","family":"McCracken","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis  MO USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2016,6,14]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_7_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"AastveitKA CarrieroA ClarkTE MarcellinoM.2014.Have standard VARs remained stable since the crisis?Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Working Paper 14\u201011.","DOI":"10.26509\/frbc-wp-201411"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijforecast.2014.08.013"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1057\/imfer.2014.1"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jeconom.2015.10.004"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_6_1","unstructured":"CarusoA ReichlinL RiccoG.2015.The legacy debt and the joint path of public deficit and debt in the euro area. Working Paper University of Warwick."},{"key":"e_1_2_7_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"ClaridaRH CoyleD.1984.Conditional projection by means of Kalman filtering. Working paper National Bureau of Economic Research.","DOI":"10.3386\/t0036"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijforecast.2013.11.005"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1108\/S0731-9053(2013)0000031004"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1392185"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/mac.20140097"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/07474938408800053"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1353\/eca.2010.0015"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jeconom.2008.08.024"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/B978-0-444-53683-9.00001-3"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijforecast.2013.01.012"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jeconom.2003.10.030"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_18_1","first-page":"27","volume-title":"Advances in Econometrics: VAR models in Macroeconomics\u2014New Developments and Applications","author":"Gurkaynak RS","year":"2013"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jeconom.2012.06.008"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.econlet.2010.05.022"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1391384"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-662-02691-5"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"MeyerB ZamanS.2013.It's not just for inflation: the usefulness of the median CPI in BVAR forecasting. FRB\u2013Cleveland Working Paper 13\u201303.","DOI":"10.26509\/frbc-wp-201303"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_24_1","first-page":"3","volume-title":"Economic Forecasts and Expectations","author":"Mincer J","year":"1969"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_25_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1913610"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_26_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/07350015.2014.954707"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_27_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"SimsCA.1982.Policy analysis with econometric models.","DOI":"10.2307\/2534318"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_28_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/aer.97.3.586"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_29_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.1987.10478542"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_30_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1162\/003465399558508"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_31_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2171956"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_32_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2527340"}],"container-title":["Journal of Applied Econometrics"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/api.wiley.com\/onlinelibrary\/tdm\/v1\/articles\/10.1002%2Fjae.2529","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/api.wiley.com\/onlinelibrary\/tdm\/v1\/articles\/10.1002%2Fjae.2529","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/jae.2529","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2023,10,5]],"date-time":"2023-10-05T13:54:28Z","timestamp":1696514068000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1002\/jae.2529"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2016,6,14]]},"references-count":31,"journal-issue":{"issue":"3","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2017,4]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1002\/jae.2529"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/jae.2529","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["0883-7252","1099-1255"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0883-7252","type":"print"},{"value":"1099-1255","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2016,6,14]]}}}