{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,15]],"date-time":"2025-10-15T10:16:49Z","timestamp":1760523409809},"reference-count":47,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2016,6,27]],"date-time":"2016-06-27T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1466985600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["J of Applied Econometrics"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2017,4]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Summary<\/jats:title><jats:p>We develop a panel count model with a latent spatio\u2010temporal heterogeneous state process for monthly severe crimes at the census\u2010tract level in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Our dataset combines Uniform Crime Reporting data with socio\u2010economic data. The likelihood is estimated by efficient importance sampling techniques for high\u2010dimensional spatial models. Estimation results confirm the broken\u2010windows hypothesis whereby less severe crimes are leading indicators for severe crimes. In addition to ML parameter estimates, we compute several other statistics of interest for law enforcement such as spatio\u2010temporal elasticities of severe crimes with respect to less severe crimes, out\u2010of\u2010sample forecasts, predictive distributions and validation test statistics. Copyright \u00a9 2016 John Wiley &amp; Sons, Ltd.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/jae.2534","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2016,6,29]],"date-time":"2016-06-29T03:07:48Z","timestamp":1467169668000},"page":"600-620","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":20,"title":["Likelihood\u2010Based Inference and Prediction in Spatio\u2010Temporal Panel Count Models for Urban Crimes"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"32","author":[{"given":"Roman","family":"Liesenfeld","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Econometrics and Statistics Universit\u00e4t K\u00f6ln Germany"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jean\u2010Fran\u00e7ois","family":"Richard","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Economics University of Pittsburgh PA USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jan","family":"Vogler","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Econometrics and Statistics Universit\u00e4t K\u00f6ln Germany"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2016,6,27]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_9_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-94-015-7799-1"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_3_1","first-page":"213","volume-title":"Measurement and Analysis of Crime and Justice","author":"Anselin L","year":"2000"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1745-9125.2001.tb00933.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_5_1","first-page":"699","volume-title":"Handbook of Quantitative Criminology","author":"Bernasco W","year":"2013"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1912110"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1538-4632.1972.tb00475.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/000271624121700105"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_9_1","unstructured":"CohenJ GorrWL.2005.Development of crime forecasting and mapping systems of use by police. Report Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh PA."},{"key":"e_1_2_9_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1538-4632.2006.00697.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2094589"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4613-8625-4"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1541-0420.2009.01191.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.stamet.2011.02.002"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10109-011-0158-4"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1137\/0613024"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0169-2070(03)00089-X"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0169-2070(03)00092-X"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_19_1","volume-title":"Time Series and Dynamic Models","author":"Gourieroux C","year":"1997"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/15230406.2014.893839"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.csda.2006.08.001"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0306624X03251124"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/229381"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1201\/9781420064254"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_25_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.spasta.2014.03.006"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_26_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1108\/S0731-905320160000037009"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_27_1","first-page":"550","article-title":"Assaultive violence as a contagious process","volume":"62","author":"Loftin C","year":"1986","journal-title":"Bulletin of New York Academy of Medicine"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_28_1","volume-title":"New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis","author":"L\u00fctkepohl H","year":"2007"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_29_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"243","DOI":"10.1111\/j.2517-6161.1948.tb00012.x","article-title":"The interpretation of statistical maps","volume":"10","author":"Moran PAP","year":"1948","journal-title":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_30_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/sf\/76.1.31"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_31_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1745-9125.2001.tb00932.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_32_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1913646"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_33_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-642-23430-9_88"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_34_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1108\/S0731-905320160000037008"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_35_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.regsciurbeco.2012.04.008"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_36_1","first-page":"5","volume-title":"Handbook of Quantitative Criminology","author":"Ratcliffe JH","year":"2013"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_37_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jeconom.2007.02.007"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_38_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.giq.2013.02.001"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_39_1","volume-title":"Juvenile Delinquency and Urban Areas: A study of Rates of Delinquents in Relation to Differential Characteristics of Local Communities in American Cities","author":"Shaw CR","year":"1942"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_40_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-0-387-09688-9_7"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_41_1","first-page":"101","volume-title":"Handbook of Quantitative Criminology","author":"Tita GE","year":"2013"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_42_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/143141"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_43_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/230997"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_44_1","volume-title":"Uniform Crime Reporting Handbook","author":"US Department of Justice, Federal Bureau of Investigation","year":"2004"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_45_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-642-23430-9_92"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_46_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0011128712470991"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_47_1","first-page":"29","article-title":"Broken windows: the police and neighborhood safety","volume":"249","author":"Wilson JQ","year":"1982","journal-title":"Atlantic Monthly"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_48_1","volume-title":"Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data","author":"Wooldridge JM","year":"2002"}],"container-title":["Journal of Applied Econometrics"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/api.wiley.com\/onlinelibrary\/tdm\/v1\/articles\/10.1002%2Fjae.2534","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/api.wiley.com\/onlinelibrary\/tdm\/v1\/articles\/10.1002%2Fjae.2534","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/jae.2534","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,17]],"date-time":"2024-06-17T23:44:23Z","timestamp":1718667863000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1002\/jae.2534"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2016,6,27]]},"references-count":47,"journal-issue":{"issue":"3","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2017,4]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1002\/jae.2534"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/jae.2534","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["0883-7252","1099-1255"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0883-7252","type":"print"},{"value":"1099-1255","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2016,6,27]]}}}