{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,15]],"date-time":"2026-07-15T18:57:56Z","timestamp":1784141876806,"version":"3.55.0"},"reference-count":36,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2018,10,17]],"date-time":"2018-10-17T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1539734400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc-nd\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["J of Applied Econometrics"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2019,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Summary<\/jats:title><jats:p>The begin and end dates of cartels are often ambiguous, despite competition authorities stating them with precision. The legally established infringement period(s) from documentary evidence need not coincide with the period(s) of actual cartel effects. In this paper, we show that misdating cartel effects leads to a (weak) overestimation of but\u2010for prices and an underestimation of overcharges. Total overcharges based on comparing but\u2010for prices to <jats:italic>actual<\/jats:italic> prices are a (weak) underestimation of the true amount overcharged, irrespective of the type and size of the misdating. The bias in antitrust damage estimation based on <jats:italic>predicted<\/jats:italic> cartel prices can have either sign. We extend the before\u2010during\u2010and\u2010after method with an empirical cartel dating procedure, which infers structural breaks of unknown number and dates that mark the actual begin and end dates of the collusive effects. Empirical findings in the European <jats:italic>Sodium Chlorate<\/jats:italic> cartel corroborate our theoretical results.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/jae.2660","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2018,9,26]],"date-time":"2018-09-26T02:33:45Z","timestamp":1537929225000},"page":"26-42","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":20,"title":["Cartel dating"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"34","author":[{"given":"H. Peter","family":"Boswijk","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Amsterdam School of Economics and Tinbergen Institute University of Amsterdam  Amsterdam The Netherlands"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Maurice J. G.","family":"Bun","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Amsterdam School of Economics University of Amsterdam  The Netherlands"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Maarten Pieter","family":"Schinkel","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Amsterdam School of Economics, Tinbergen Institute and ACLE University of Amsterdam  The Netherlands"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2018,10,17]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_8_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0022-0531(86)90028-1"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_3_1","volume-title":"Econometrics: Legal, Practical, and Technical Issues","author":"American Bar Association","year":"2014"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2951764"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2998540"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/jae.659"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9781139164863.010"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_8_1","unstructured":"Bernheim B. D.(2008).Expert Report of B. Douglas Bernheim. (Ph.D. In Re: Vitamin C Antitrust Litigation MDL. No. 1738) US District Court for the Eastern District of New York. November 14."},{"key":"e_1_2_8_9_1","article-title":"Recurrent collusion: Cartel episodes and overcharge in the South African cement market","author":"Boshoff W. H.","journal-title":"Review of Industrial Organization"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_10_1","first-page":"304","article-title":"Correcting the bias when damage periods are chosen to coincide with price declines. Appendix I to Carlton, D. W. Using economics to improve antitrust policy","volume":"2","author":"Carlton D. 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(Commission staff working document).Strasbourg France: European Commission."},{"key":"e_1_2_8_13_1","article-title":"A structural break cartel screen for dating and detecting collusion","author":"Crede C.","journal-title":"Review of Industrial Organization"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1515\/9781400831869"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0304-4076(94)01690-9"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2555852"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1191596"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_18_1","first-page":"2","article-title":"Time\u2010series models for estimating economic damages in antitrust (and other) litigation: The relative merits of predictive versus dummy\u2010variable approaches","volume":"1","author":"Godek P. 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