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We provide a novel way to measure the slowly evolving trend and the cycle (or inflation gap), by combining inflation predictions from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) with realized inflation. The SPF forecasts may be treated either as rational expectations (RE) or updating according to a sticky information (SI) law of motion. We estimate RE and SI state\u2010space models with stochastic volatility on samples of consumer price index and gross national product\/gross domestic product deflator inflation and the associated SPF inflation predictions using a particle Metropolis\u2013Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler. The trend converges to 2% and its volatility declines over time\u2014two tendencies largely complete by the late 1990s.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/jae.2784","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2020,6,10]],"date-time":"2020-06-10T00:29:26Z","timestamp":1591748966000},"page":"1-17","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":15,"title":["Measuring the slowly evolving trend in US inflation with professional forecasts"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"36","author":[{"given":"James M.","family":"Nason","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Economics North Carolina State University Raleigh North Carolina United States"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Gregor W.","family":"Smith","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Economics Queen's University Kingston Ontario Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2020,7,14]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_10_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-9868.2009.00736.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jmoneco.2006.04.006"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/jel.52.3.679"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jedc.2016.05.017"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0304-3932(81)90040-4"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_7_1","unstructured":"Cecchetti S. 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