{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2024,5,18]],"date-time":"2024-05-18T05:16:13Z","timestamp":1716009373829},"reference-count":17,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2020,12,29]],"date-time":"2020-12-29T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1609200000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["J of Applied Econometrics"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,1]]},"abstract":"Summary<\/jats:title>Christodoulakis and Mamatzakis (2009, Journal of Applied Econometrics<\/jats:italic> 24, pp. 583\u2013606) estimate the EU Commission loss preferences for selected economic forecasts of 12 EU Member States. They employ the generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation procedure proposed by Elliott et al. (2005, Review of Economic Studies<\/jats:italic> 72, pp. 1107\u20131125) and find the forecasts to be somewhat optimistic on average. However, this note shows the GMM estimator to possess nonstandard limiting distributions when some of the instruments are highly persistent, which is the case with one of the instruments employed by Christodoulakis and Mamatzakis. Standard distributions are recovered in some interesting particular cases which are relevant in practice. A reexamination of the EU Commission loss preferences using methods robust to persistence and a dataset extended to 2017 reveals that, while the conclusions of the original study are, by and large, still justified, the EU Commission loss preferences have become more symmetric over the whole studied period.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/jae.2801","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2020,11,24]],"date-time":"2020-11-24T05:15:07Z","timestamp":1606194907000},"page":"151-161","update-policy":"http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":3,"title":["Reevaluating the prudence of economic forecasts in the EU: The role of instrument persistence"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"36","author":[{"given":"Matei","family":"Demetrescu","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute for Statistics and Econometrics Christian\u2010Albrechts\u2010University of Kiel Kiel D\u201024118 Germany"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Christoph","family":"Roling","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Bonn Graduate School of Economics University of Bonn Bonn D\u201053113 Germany"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Anna","family":"Titova","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute for Statistics and Econometrics Christian\u2010Albrechts\u2010University of Kiel Kiel D\u201024118 Germany"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2020,12,29]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_6_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0261-5606(00)00018-8"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2109358"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jfineco.2005.05.008"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/for.1073"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/jae.1045"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/0198774036.001.0001"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/0034-6527.00363"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1913242"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/jjfinec\/nbp002"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s101080050007"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0266466600013189"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jempfin.2004.05.003"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/jae.624"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1468-0262.00447"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3982\/ECTA6814"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1198\/016214506000001176"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/biomet\/74.3.535"}],"container-title":["Journal of Applied Econometrics"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/jae.2801","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1002\/jae.2801","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/jae.2801","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2023,9,2]],"date-time":"2023-09-02T16:10:54Z","timestamp":1693671054000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1002\/jae.2801"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2020,12,29]]},"references-count":17,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,1]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1002\/jae.2801"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/jae.2801","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["0883-7252","1099-1255"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0883-7252","type":"print"},{"value":"1099-1255","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2020,12,29]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2019-07-16","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2020-07-28","order":1,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2020-12-29","order":2,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}]}}