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The forecast may result from a survey of forecasters or from an estimated parametric model. The first class of tests compares the mean\u2010squared prediction error of the forecast to the variance of the evaluation sample, whereas the second class of tests compares it with the mean\u2010squared prediction error of the recursive mean. We show that the forecast comparison may easily be performed by adopting the encompassing principle, which results in simple regression tests with standard asymptotic inference. Our tests are applied to forecasts of macroeconomic key variables from the survey of Consensus Economics. The results suggest that these forecasts are barely informative beyond two to four quarters ahead.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/jae.2817","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,4,24]],"date-time":"2021-04-24T07:39:05Z","timestamp":1619249945000},"page":"369-392","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":22,"title":["How far can we forecast? Statistical tests of the predictive content"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"36","author":[{"given":"J\u00f6rg","family":"Breitung","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute for Econometrics and Statistics University of Cologne  Cologne Germany"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Malte","family":"Kn\u00fcppel","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Research Centre Deutsche Bundesbank  Frankfurt Germany"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,5,17]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_9_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2938229"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jmoneco.2006.04.006"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Breitung J. &Kn\u00fcppel M.(2018).How far can we forecast? Statistical tests of the predictive content. 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