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Our results show that, if the variance predictions of the individual forecasts are unbiased, the well\u2010known \u201cdisagreement\u201d component of the linear pool exacerbates the upward bias of its variance prediction. This finding suggests the removal of the disagreement component from the linear pool. The resulting centered linear pool outperforms the linear pool in simulations and an empirical application to inflation.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/jae.2834","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,7,5]],"date-time":"2021-07-05T06:45:18Z","timestamp":1625467518000},"page":"23-41","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":10,"title":["Forecast uncertainty, disagreement, and the linear pool"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"37","author":[{"given":"Malte","family":"Kn\u00fcppel","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Research Centre Deutsche Bundesbank  Frankfurt Germany"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Fabian","family":"Kr\u00fcger","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Economics and Management Karlsruhe Institute of Technology  Karlsruhe Germany"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,8,11]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_10_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/acrefore\/9780190625979.013.381"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/aer.20161923"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2938229"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1057\/jors.1969.103"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/obes.12163"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Carriero A. 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