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It relies on a semi\u2010parametric identification strategy that controls for the confounding effects of past gross domestic product (GDP) dynamics, anticipation effects, unobserved heterogeneity, model uncertainty, and effect heterogeneity. Our findings indicate that secession lowered per capita GDP, on average by around 24% in the 10th post\u2010independence year. Nevertheless, the associated cross\u2010sectional standard deviation of 25% emphasizes that the economic impact of secession also varied widely across countries. A novel procedure to produce confidence intervals around synthetic control estimates of treatment effects demonstrates the statistical significance of the findings. We document the implications for several historical independence waves and connect them to the existing literature. We find tentative evidence that, in decreasing order of relative importance, the adverse effects of independence are disproportionally present in non\u2010oil producing landlocked countries and are mitigated when newly independent states use their new\u2010found political autonomy to democratize or to liberalize their trade regime.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/jae.2857","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,7,19]],"date-time":"2021-07-19T08:56:23Z","timestamp":1626684983000},"page":"82-115","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":15,"title":["The economics of state fragmentation: Assessing the economic impact of secession"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"37","author":[{"given":"Jo","family":"Reynaerts","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Faculty of Economics and Business, Research Centre for Regional Economics (VIVES) KU Leuven\u2014University of Leuven  Leuven Belgium"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jakob","family":"Vanschoonbeek","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Faculty of Economics and Business, Research Centre for Regional Economics (VIVES) KU Leuven\u2014University of Leuven  Leuven Belgium"},{"name":"Fellow of the Research Foundation \u2010 Flanders (FWO)  Brussels Belgium"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,9,30]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_8_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Abadie A. 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