{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,2]],"date-time":"2025-12-02T06:16:05Z","timestamp":1764656165292,"version":"3.40.5"},"reference-count":28,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,11,1]],"date-time":"2021-11-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1635724800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["J of Applied Econometrics"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2022,4]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Summary<\/jats:title><jats:p>We analyse individual professional forecasters' beliefs concerning the persistence of GDP shocks. Despite substantial apparent heterogeneity in perceptions, with around one half of the sample of professional forecasters believing shocks do not have permanent effects, we show that these apparent differences may be largely due to short samples and survey respondents being active at different times. When we control for these effects, using a bootstrap, we formally do not reject the null that individuals' long\u2010horizon expectations are interchangeable at a given point in time. When we apply the same bootstrap approach to their medium\u2010term expectations, we do reject the null. We explore this difference between long and medium\u2010horizon forecasts by decomposing revisions in forecasts into permanent and transitory components.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/jae.2884","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,9,20]],"date-time":"2021-09-20T22:03:58Z","timestamp":1632175438000},"page":"640-656","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":8,"title":["Individual forecaster perceptions of the persistence of shocks to GDP"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"37","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6329-1341","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Michael P.","family":"Clements","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"ICMA Centre, Henley Business School University of Reading  Reading RG6 6BA UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,11]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_8_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/511283"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jmoneco.2013.08.005"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0304-3932(81)90040-4"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_5_1","first-page":"1","volume-title":"Is the Cycle the Trend? Evidence From the Views of International Forecasters","author":"Bluedorn J. C.","year":"2018"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3368\/jhr.50.2.317"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1468-2354.2009.00554.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Canova F. &Ciccarelli M.(2013).Panel Vector Autoregressive Models: A Survey Cepr discussion papers 9380 C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.","DOI":"10.2139\/ssrn.2201610"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/07350015.2013.859618"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijforecast.2017.10.004"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_11_1","article-title":"Forecaster efficiency, accuracy and disagreement: Evidence using individual\u2010level survey data","author":"Clements M. P.","year":"2021","journal-title":"Journal of Money, Credit and Banking"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_12_1","unstructured":"Croushore D.(1993).Introducing: The Survey of Professional ForecastersFederal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Review November 3\u201315."},{"key":"e_1_2_8_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0304-4076(01)00072-0"},{"volume-title":"Monte Carlo error analyses of Spearman's rank test mimeo","year":"2015","author":"Curran P. A.","key":"e_1_2_8_14_1"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1538-4616.2012.00507.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/jae.1206"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0304-405X(88)90020-7"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1924211"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1924204"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_20_1","first-page":"7","volume-title":"The National Bureau Enters Its 45th Year, 44th Annual Report","author":"Friedman M.","year":"1964"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1465-7295.1993.tb00874.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/rfs\/5.3.351"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/07350015.2017.1281814"},{"issue":"4","key":"e_1_2_8_24_1","first-page":"714","article-title":"Testing the rationality of price forecasts: new evidence from panel data","volume":"80","author":"Keane M. P.","year":"1990","journal-title":"American Economic Review"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_25_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/mac.3.1.184"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_26_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jeconom.2008.02.002"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_27_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1538-4616.2011.00404.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_28_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jmoneco.2010.07.001"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_29_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1198\/jbes.2010.08347"}],"container-title":["Journal of Applied Econometrics"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/jae.2884","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1002\/jae.2884","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/jae.2884","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2023,8,25]],"date-time":"2023-08-25T19:59:11Z","timestamp":1692993551000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1002\/jae.2884"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2021,11]]},"references-count":28,"journal-issue":{"issue":"3","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2022,4]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1002\/jae.2884"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/jae.2884","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["0883-7252","1099-1255"],"issn-type":[{"type":"print","value":"0883-7252"},{"type":"electronic","value":"1099-1255"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2021,11]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2019-03-25","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2020-07-06","order":1,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2021-11-01","order":2,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}]}}