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First, we construct (unofficial) real\u2010time vintages of the NFCI. This allows us to conduct out\u2010of\u2010sample analysis without introducing the kind of look\u2010ahead biases that are naturally introduced when using a single current vintage. We then develop methods for conducting asymptotic inference on tests of equal tick loss between nested quantile regression models when the data are subject to revision. We conclude by evaluating the real\u2010time predictive content of NFCI vintages for quantiles of real GDP growth. While our results largely reinforce the literature, we find gains to using real\u2010time vintages leading up to recessions\u2014precisely when policymakers need such a monitoring device.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/jae.2943","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,11,2]],"date-time":"2022-11-02T04:03:38Z","timestamp":1667361818000},"page":"137-163","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":28,"title":["On the real\u2010time predictive content of financial condition indices for growth"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"38","author":[{"given":"Aaron J.","family":"Amburgey","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis  P.O. Box 442 St. Louis 63166 Missouri USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Michael W.","family":"McCracken","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis  P.O. 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