{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,21]],"date-time":"2026-09-21T11:00:05Z","timestamp":1789988405246,"version":"4.0.1"},"reference-count":92,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,3,1]],"date-time":"2023-03-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1677628800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["J of Applied Econometrics"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2023,6]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Summary<\/jats:title><jats:p>This paper examines the presence of nonlinearities in the Phillips curve. We allow for a flexible form of nonlinearity and estimate a threshold regression model with the number and location of thresholds determined directly from the data. Over the estimation period starting in the late 1960s, we document that the linear model cannot be rejected if we properly control for inflation expectations. More precisely, not controlling for <jats:italic>consumer<\/jats:italic> expectations may lead the econometrician to overestimate the degree of nonlinearity. Our results hold with aggregate data, regional data, and controlling for cost\u2010push shocks directly or using instrumental variables.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/jae.2963","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,2,5]],"date-time":"2023-02-05T06:44:00Z","timestamp":1675579440000},"page":"453-471","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":24,"title":["Inflation expectations and nonlinearities in the Phillips curve"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"38","author":[{"given":"Alexander","family":"Doser","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Northwestern University  Evanston Illinois USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ricardo","family":"Nunes","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Surrey and CIMS  Guildford UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nikhil","family":"Rao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Michigan  Ann Arbor Michigan USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Viacheslav","family":"Sheremirov","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of Boston  Boston Massachusetts USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,3]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_10_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1465-7295.2010.00328.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/qje\/qjy022"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jmoneco.2013.08.005"},{"issue":"3","key":"e_1_2_10_5_1","first-page":"1","article-title":"A bit of a miracle no more: The decline of the labor share","volume":"2015","author":"Armenter R.","year":"2015","journal-title":"FRB Philadelphia Business Review"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Ascari G. Bonomolo P. &Haque Q.(2022).The long run Phillips curve is \u22ef a curve. Manuscript.","DOI":"10.2139\/ssrn.4531060"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/pol.4.2.1"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Babb N. R. &Detmeister A. K.(2017).Nonlinearities in the Phillips curve for the United States: Evidence using metropolitan data: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System\u00a0Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017\u2010070.","DOI":"10.17016\/FEDS.2017.070"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_9_1","first-page":"167","volume-title":"Reducing inflation:\u00a0Motivation and strategy","author":"Ball L. M.","year":"1997"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1353\/eca.2011.0005"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/jmcb.12502"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_12_1","first-page":"49","volume-title":"Changing inflation dynamics, evolving monetary policy","author":"Ball L. M.","year":"2020"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_13_1","first-page":"3","article-title":"Inside and outside bounds: Threshold estimates of the Phillips curve","author":"Barnes M. L.","year":"2003","journal-title":"New England Economic Review"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/restud\/rdab029"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/qje\/qjaa022"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_16_1","first-page":"137","volume-title":"NBER macroeconomics annual","author":"Barsky R. B.","year":"2002"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Beaudry P. &Portier F.(2018).Real Keynesian models and sticky prices: National Bureau of Economic Research\u00a0Working Paper No. 24223.","DOI":"10.3386\/w24223"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.euroecorev.2021.103852"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jmoneco.2017.06.001"},{"issue":"2","key":"e_1_2_10_20_1","first-page":"211","article-title":"The Lucas critique and the Volcker deflation","volume":"74","author":"Blanchard O. J.","year":"1984","journal-title":"American Economic Review"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7208\/chicago\/9780226043555.003.0005"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Bolhuis M. A. Cramer J. N. L. &Summers L. H.(2022).Comparing past and present inflation: National Bureau of Economic Research\u00a0Working Paper No. 30116.http:\/\/www.nber.org\/papers\/w30116","DOI":"10.3386\/w30116"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/aer.20181219"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Bordo M. D. Erceg C. J. Levin A. T. &Michaels R(2007).Three great American disinflations. InMonetary Policy Transparency and Credibility Proceedings of a Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Conference. Conference draft available atfrbsf.org\/economic\u2010research\/events\/2007\/march\/monetary\u2010policytransparency\u2010credibility\/levin_bordo_etal.pdf","DOI":"10.3386\/w12982"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_25_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Brunnermeier M. K. &Koby Y.(2018).The reversal interest rate: National Bureau of Economic Research\u00a0Working Paper No. 25406.","DOI":"10.3386\/w25406"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_26_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1162\/rest.90.3.414"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_27_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/jmcb.12452"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_28_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/mac.20140104"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_29_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1162\/003355300554692"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_30_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1353\/mcb.2006.0068"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_31_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/mac.20130306"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_32_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/jel.20171300"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_33_1","unstructured":"Congressional Budget Office. (2019).The budget and economic outlook: 2019 to 2029\u00a0Report available athttps:\/\/www.cbo.gov\/publication\/54918"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_34_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1353\/eca.2019.0002"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_35_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/jmcb.12152"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_36_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/3867544"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_37_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/mac.20140097"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_38_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1353\/eca.2020.0004"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_39_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jmoneco.2008.09.006"},{"issue":"1","key":"e_1_2_10_40_1","first-page":"225","article-title":"Consumers' attitudes and their inflation expectations","volume":"13","author":"Ehrmann M.","year":"2017","journal-title":"International Journal of Central Banking"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_41_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0304-3932(03)00036-9"},{"issue":"3","key":"e_1_2_10_42_1","first-page":"49","article-title":"Intrinsic and inherited inflation persistence","volume":"2","author":"Fuhrer J. C.","year":"2006","journal-title":"International Journal of Central Banking"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_43_1","first-page":"423","volume-title":"Handbook of monetary economics","author":"Fuhrer J. C.","year":"2010"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_44_1","unstructured":"Fuhrer J. C.(2018).Intrinsic expectations persistence: Evidence from professional and household survey expectations. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston\u00a0Working Paper No. 18\u20109."},{"key":"e_1_2_10_45_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2118513"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_46_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1162\/qjec.2009.124.3.1221"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_47_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0304-3932(99)00023-9"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_48_1","unstructured":"Gerko E.(2018).Expectations and monetary policy\u00a0Working Paper."},{"key":"e_1_2_10_49_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/aer.102.4.1692"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_50_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jmoneco.2009.03.017"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_51_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jmoneco.2005.07.001"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_52_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/261113"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_53_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2171789"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_54_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1468-0262.00124"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_55_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/07350015.2015.1073595"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_56_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jmoneco.2021.09.003"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_57_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/qje\/qjac010"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_58_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/jmcb.12896"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_59_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.rie.2019.11.004"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_60_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S1365100511000186"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_61_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2078048"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_62_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00181-012-0553-9"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_63_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jmacro.2015.08.003"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_64_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jedc.2021.104208"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_65_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jmoneco.2005.08.019"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_66_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.econlet.2018.08.016"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_67_1","first-page":"209","volume-title":"NBER macroeconomics annual","author":"Mankiw N. G.","year":"2004"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_68_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/jel.52.1.124"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_69_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3386\/w25892"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_70_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/jmcb.12314"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_71_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/jae.1011"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_72_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S136510050807051X"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_73_1","unstructured":"Nunes R.(2018).Intrinsic expectations persistence: Evidence from professional and household survey expectations. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston\u00a0Working Paper No. 18\u20109."},{"key":"e_1_2_10_74_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/aer.91.4.964"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_75_1","unstructured":"Petrella I. Santoro E. &de\u00a0la Porte\u00a0Simonsen L.(2018).Time\u2010varying price flexibility and inflation dynamics\u00a0Working Paper."},{"issue":"1","key":"e_1_2_10_76_1","first-page":"199","article-title":"The role of expectations in changed inflation dynamics","volume":"18","author":"Pfajfar D.","year":"2022","journal-title":"International Journal of Central Banking"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_77_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/jmcb.12043"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_78_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1162\/qjec.2009.124.3.1011"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_79_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1468-0335.1958.tb00003.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_80_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1162\/qjec.121.3.867"},{"issue":"3","key":"e_1_2_10_81_1","first-page":"193","article-title":"Monetary policy and inflation dynamics","volume":"2","author":"Roberts J. M.","year":"2006","journal-title":"International Journal of Central Banking"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_82_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/0002828042002651"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_83_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/654340"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_84_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jmoneco.2014.07.009"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_85_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1353\/mcb.2004.0060"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_86_1","first-page":"79","volume-title":"World Economic Outlook:\u00a0Hopes, Realities, Risks","author":"Simon J.","year":"2013"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_87_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/aer.97.3.586"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_88_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/0019\u20108676.00158"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_89_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/jmcb.12757"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_90_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/mac.20150016"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_91_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/jmcb.12681"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_92_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/jmcb.12300"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_93_1","unstructured":"Yellen J. L.(2015).Inflation dynamics and monetary policy. University of Massachusetts."}],"container-title":["Journal of Applied Econometrics"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/jae.2963","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1002\/jae.2963","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/jae.2963","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2023,8,20]],"date-time":"2023-08-20T11:10:53Z","timestamp":1692529853000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1002\/jae.2963"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2023,3]]},"references-count":92,"journal-issue":{"issue":"4","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2023,6]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1002\/jae.2963"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/jae.2963","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["0883-7252","1099-1255"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0883-7252","type":"print"},{"value":"1099-1255","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2023,3]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2020-02-25","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2022-11-13","order":1,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2023-03-01","order":2,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}]}}