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Its main output, <jats:italic>generalized<\/jats:italic> time\u2010varying parameters (GTVPs), is a versatile device nesting many popular nonlinearities (threshold\/switching, smooth transition, and structural breaks\/change) and allowing for sophisticated new ones. The approach delivers clear forecasting gains over numerous alternatives, predicts the 2008 drastic rise in unemployment, and performs well for inflation. Unlike most ML\u2010based methods, MRF is directly interpretable\u2014via its GTVPs. For instance, the successful unemployment forecast is due to the influence of forward\u2010looking variables (e.g., term spreads and housing starts) nearly doubling before every recession. Interestingly, the Phillips curve has indeed flattened, <jats:italic>and<\/jats:italic> its might is highly cyclical.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/jae.3030","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,1,17]],"date-time":"2024-01-17T09:05:30Z","timestamp":1705482330000},"page":"401-421","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":47,"title":["The macroeconomy as a random forest"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"39","author":[{"given":"Philippe","family":"Goulet Coulombe","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"D\u00e9partement des Sciences \u00c9conomiques ESG\u2010UQAM  Montr\u00e9al Qu\u00e9bec Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,1,17]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_8_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/aer.20161923"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/10618600.1996.10474702"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1911894"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/07350015.2018.1459302"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jedc.2017.07.006"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4614-1653-1_1"},{"issue":"1","key":"e_1_2_8_8_1","first-page":"2","article-title":"Are phillips curves useful for forecasting inflation?","volume":"25","author":"Atkeson A.","year":"2001","journal-title":"Federal Reserve bank of Minneapolis quarterly review"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/pol.4.2.1"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Blanchard O. 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