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The choice of severe yet plausible stress scenarios is based on the joint probability distribution of the underlying factors driving growth, which are extracted with a multilevel dynamic factor model (DFM) from a wide set of domestic\/worldwide and\/or macroeconomic\/financial variables. All together, we provide a risk management tool that allows for a complete visualization of the dynamics of the growth densities under average scenarios and extreme scenarios. We calculate growth\u2010in\u2010stress (GiS) measures, defined as the 5% quantile of the stressed growth densities, and show that GiS is a useful and complementary tool to growth\u2010at\u2010risk (GaR) when policymakers wish to carry out a multidimensional scenario analysis. The unprecedented economic shock brought by the COVID\u201019 pandemic provides a natural environment to assess the vulnerability of US growth with the proposed methodology.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/jae.3060","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,5,22]],"date-time":"2024-05-22T12:32:32Z","timestamp":1716381152000},"page":"926-942","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":5,"title":["Expecting the unexpected: Stressed scenarios for economic growth"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"39","author":[{"given":"Gloria","family":"Gonz\u00e1lez\u2010Rivera","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Economics University of California  Riverside California USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"C. 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