{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,8]],"date-time":"2026-10-08T10:45:53Z","timestamp":1791456353836,"version":"4.3.4"},"reference-count":16,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,12,30]],"date-time":"2024-12-30T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1735516800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc-nd\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["J of Applied Econometrics"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,3]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT<\/jats:title><jats:p>Rudebusch and Williams (2009) predict recessions in the United States utilising a probit model with the lagged yield spread as a real\u2010time predictor. Mindful of the importance of recent yield curve movements, we update their analysis and evaluate quarterly forecasts from their probit model up to the end of 2023. We also analyze lagged financial conditions as an alternative real\u2010time predictor. We find that both the yield spread and financial conditions perform relatively well at the longer horizons considered by the experts in the Survey of Professional Forecasters.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/jae.3106","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,12,31]],"date-time":"2024-12-31T05:21:22Z","timestamp":1735622482000},"page":"231-236","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":2,"title":["Reassessing the Predictive Power of the Yield Spread for Recessions in the United States"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"40","author":[{"given":"Patrick J.","family":"Coe","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Economics Carleton University  Ottawa Canada"},{"name":"Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis Australian National University  Canberra Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Shaun P.","family":"Vahey","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis Australian National University  Canberra Australia"},{"name":"Warwick Business School University of Warwick  Coventry England"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,12,30]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_8_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/aer.20161923"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/jae.2943"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/jae.2937"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_5_1","unstructured":"Cooper D. J.Fuhrer andG.Olivei.2020.Predicting Recessions Using the Yield Curve: The Role of the Stance of Monetary Policy.87522. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Research Paper Series Current Policy Perspectives Paper."},{"key":"e_1_2_8_6_1","first-page":"3","article-title":"Introducing: The Survey of Professional Forecasters","volume":"6","author":"Croushore D.","year":"1993","journal-title":"Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Review"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/jae.2485"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0304-4076(01)00072-0"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/07350015.1995.10524599"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1540-6261.1991.tb02674.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/730207"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_12_1","unstructured":"Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.2023a.Real\u2010Time Dataset for Macroeconomists.https:\/\/www.philadelphiafed.org\/surveys\u2010and\u2010data\/real\u2010time\u2010data\u2010research\/real\u2010time\u2010data\u2010set\u2010for\u2010macroeconomistsphiladelphiafed.org."},{"key":"e_1_2_8_13_1","unstructured":"Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.2023b.Survey of Professional Forecasters: Documentation.https:\/\/www.philadelphiafed.org\/\u2010\/media\/frbp\/assets\/surveys\u2010and\u2010data\/survey\u2010of\u2010professional\u2010forecasters\/spf\u2010documentation.pdfphiladelphiafed.org."},{"key":"e_1_2_8_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Furno F. andD.Giannone.2024.Nowcasting Recession Risk.https:\/\/www.amazon.science\/publications\/nowcasting\u2010recession\u2010risk.","DOI":"10.2139\/ssrn.4706700"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/aer.102.4.1692"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.econlet.2012.10.022"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1198\/jbes.2009.07213"}],"container-title":["Journal of Applied Econometrics"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/jae.3106","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,3,11]],"date-time":"2025-03-11T21:11:19Z","timestamp":1741727479000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1002\/jae.3106"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2024,12,30]]},"references-count":16,"journal-issue":{"issue":"2","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,3]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1002\/jae.3106"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/jae.3106","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["0883-7252","1099-1255"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0883-7252","type":"print"},{"value":"1099-1255","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2024,12,30]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2024-01-11","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2024-10-26","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2024-12-30","order":3,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}]}}