{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,24]],"date-time":"2026-09-24T11:19:42Z","timestamp":1790248782528,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":50,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,11]],"date-time":"2025-01-11T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1736553600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["J of Applied Econometrics"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,3]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT<\/jats:title><jats:p>Long\u2010run GDP growth has declined in the United States over the past two decades. Two competing views take centre stage in accounting for this slowdown: the demand\u2010side view and the supply\u2010side view. I empirically quantify their relative importance in a Bayesian SVAR with common trends identified using sign restrictions. While supply\u2010side factors were the main driver of long\u2010run GDP growth prior to 2000, demand\u2010side factors explain half of its slowdown afterwards. The findings highlight the importance of demand\u2010side factors as drivers of long\u2010run growth.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/jae.3109","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,11]],"date-time":"2025-01-11T11:08:56Z","timestamp":1736593736000},"page":"181-194","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":5,"title":["Identifying the Sources of the Slowdown in Growth: Demand Versus Supply"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"40","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6258-1053","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Nicol\u00f2","family":"Maffei\u2010Faccioli","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Monetary Policy Research Norges Bank  Sentrum, Oslo Norway"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,11]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_10_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Akcigit U. andS. T.Ates.2019. \u201cWhat Happened to US Business Dynamism?.\u201d (Working Paper Series No. 25756): NBER.","DOI":"10.3386\/w25756"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1162\/REST_a_00646"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jeconom.2023.105634"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/mac.20170269"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Arias J. J.Rubio\u00a0Ram\u00edrez andD. F.Waggoner.2023. \u201cUniform Priors for Impulse Responses.\u201d (Working Paper No. 2023\u201013): FRB Atlanta.","DOI":"10.21799\/frbp.wp.2022.30"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/jel.52.3.679"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4337\/ejeep.2014.02.02"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/727287"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/pandp.20231071"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/restud\/rdx063"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/mac.20150171"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Blanchard O. E.Cerutti andL.Summers.2015. \u201cInflation and Activity\u2013Two Explorations and Their Monetary Policy Implications.\u201d (Technical report): National Bureau of Economic Research.","DOI":"10.3386\/w21726"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/654013"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/aer.20180338"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2297185"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/aer.98.1.439"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"De\u00a0Ridder M.2017. \u201cInvestment in Productivity and the Long\u2010run Effect of Financial Crisis on Output.\u201d (Working Paper Series No. 6243): CESifo.","DOI":"10.2139\/ssrn.2906232"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/aer.20201079"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1353\/eca.2017.0003"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1162\/rest_a_00957"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1353\/eca.2017.0000"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jmoneco.2023.04.003"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/jel.49.4.938"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_25_1","article-title":"Estimating Hysteresis Effects","author":"Furlanetto F.","year":"2024","journal-title":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, Forthcoming"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_26_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jmoneco.2020.06.005"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_27_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3982\/ECTA16773"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_28_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1162\/REST_a_00483"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_29_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/aer.102.4.1692"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_30_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/aer.p20151102"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_31_1","volume-title":"The Rise and Fall of American Growth: The US Standard of Living Since the Civil War","author":"Gordon R. J.","year":"2017"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_32_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jedc.2016.12.004"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_33_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/mac.20220015"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_34_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1353\/eca.2017.0013"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_35_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Hamilton J. D.2011. \u201cHistorical Oil Shocks.\u201d (Working Paper 16790): National Bureau of Economic Research.\u00a0http:\/\/www.nber.org\/papers\/w16790.","DOI":"10.3386\/w16790"},{"issue":"1","key":"e_1_2_10_36_1","first-page":"1","article-title":"Economic Progress and Declining Population Growth","volume":"29","author":"Hansen A. H.","year":"1939","journal-title":"American Economic Review"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_37_1","unstructured":"IMF.2016. \u201cGlobal Disinflation in an Era of Constrained Monetary Policy.\u201d Chapter 2 in World Economic Outlook October."},{"key":"e_1_2_10_38_1","article-title":"Gone With the Headwinds: Global Productivity","author":"IMF","year":"2017","journal-title":"International Monetary Fund"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_39_1","unstructured":"IMF.2017. \u201cRecent Wage Dynamics in Advanced Economies: Drivers and Implications.\u201d Chapter 2 in World Economic Outlook October."},{"key":"e_1_2_10_40_1","volume-title":"The Role of the Prior in Estimating VAR Models With Sign Restrictions","author":"Inoue A.","year":"2020"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_41_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1162\/rest_a_01177"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_42_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Jones C. I.2020. \u201cThe End of Economic Growth? Unintended Consequences of a Declining Population.\u201d (Technical report): National Bureau of Economic Research.","DOI":"10.3386\/w26651"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_43_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1162\/rest_a_00691"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_44_1","unstructured":"Midrigan V. T.Philippon andC.Jones.2016. \u201cBeyond the Liquidity Trap: The Secular Stagnation of Investment.\u201d (Meeting Papers 1429): Society for Economic Dynamics."},{"key":"e_1_2_10_45_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jmoneco.2017.10.006"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_46_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jmoneco.2019.03.008"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_47_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/0002828042002651"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_48_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-937X.2009.00578.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_49_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1538-4616.2007.00014.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_50_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1057\/be.2014.13"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_51_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/aer.p20151103"}],"container-title":["Journal of Applied Econometrics"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/jae.3109","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,3,11]],"date-time":"2025-03-11T21:11:43Z","timestamp":1741727503000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1002\/jae.3109"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,11]]},"references-count":50,"journal-issue":{"issue":"2","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,3]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1002\/jae.3109"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/jae.3109","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["0883-7252","1099-1255"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0883-7252","type":"print"},{"value":"1099-1255","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,11]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2022-02-08","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2024-11-16","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2025-01-11","order":3,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}]}}