{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,4,5]],"date-time":"2025-04-05T04:03:47Z","timestamp":1743825827847,"version":"3.40.3"},"reference-count":26,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,2,1]],"date-time":"2025-02-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1738368000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100004061","name":"Oesterreichische Nationalbank","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["18765"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["18765"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100004061","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["J of Applied Econometrics"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,4]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT<\/jats:title><jats:p>This paper revisits the question of how shocks to expectations of market participants can cause business cycle fluctuations. We use a vector autoregression to estimate dynamic causal effects of belief shocks which are extracted from nowcast errors about output growth. In a first step, we replicate and corroborate the findings of Enders, Kleemann, and M\u00fcller (2021). The second step computes nowcast errors about growth\u2010at\u2010risk at various quantiles. This involves both recovering the quantiles of the nowcast distribution of output growth from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, and, since the true quantiles of output growth are unobserved, estimating them with quantile regressions. We document a lack of distinct patterns in response to shocks arising from nowcasts misjudging macroeconomic risk. Although the differences are statistically insignificant, belief shocks about downside risk seem to produce somewhat sharper business cycle fluctuations.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/jae.3117","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,2,1]],"date-time":"2025-02-01T11:09:36Z","timestamp":1738408176000},"page":"341-348","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Belief Shocks and Implications of Expectations About Growth\u2010at\u2010Risk"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"40","author":[{"given":"Maximilian","family":"Boeck","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Friedrich\u2010Alexander\u2010University Erlangen\u2010Nuremberg  Nuremberg Germany"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Michael","family":"Pfarrhofer","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Vienna University of Economics and Business  Vienna Austria"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,2]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_7_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"723","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jmoneco.2020.04.010","article-title":"Do Survey Expectations of Stock Returns Reflect Risk Adjustments?","volume":"117","author":"Adam K.","year":"2021","journal-title":"Journal of Monetary Economics"},{"issue":"3","key":"e_1_2_7_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1173","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijforecast.2021.01.003","article-title":"Forecasting Macroeconomic Risks","volume":"37","author":"Adams P. 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J.Borovi\u010dka andP.Ho.2022. \u201cSurvey Data and Subjective Beliefs in Business Cycle Models.\u201d SSRN 2763942."},{"issue":"7","key":"e_1_2_7_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2269","DOI":"10.1257\/aer.20201713","article-title":"Belief Distortions and Macroeconomic Fluctuations","volume":"112","author":"Bianchi F.","year":"2022","journal-title":"American Economic Review"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_11_1","unstructured":"Boeck M.2023. \u201cBelief Distortions in Risk Premia.\u201d SSRN 4010599."},{"key":"e_1_2_7_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/j.euroecorev.2023.104440","article-title":"Expectation Dispersion, Uncertainty, and the Reaction to News","volume":"154","author":"Born B.","year":"2023","journal-title":"European Economic Review"},{"issue":"3","key":"e_1_2_7_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"979","DOI":"10.1111\/iere.12619","article-title":"Tail Forecasting With Multivariate Bayesian Additive Regression Trees","volume":"64","author":"Clark T. 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