{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,23]],"date-time":"2026-07-23T01:06:19Z","timestamp":1784768779081,"version":"3.55.0"},"reference-count":43,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"5","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,5,8]],"date-time":"2025-05-08T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1746662400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc-nd\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["71903200"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["71903200"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["J of Applied Econometrics"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,8]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT<\/jats:title><jats:p>This paper proposes a novel integration of the proxy structural vector autoregression approach with narrative sign restrictions to identify multiple shocks with multiple instrumental variables. We show that this combination leads to informative inferences on shock effects through both analytical demonstrations and Monte Carlo simulations. Applying this method to identify anticipated and unanticipated technology shocks, we find that anticipated shocks account for over 45% of stock price variation but only about 13% of total factor productivity (TFP) fluctuations. The majority of TFP variations are driven by unanticipated technology shocks and measurement errors.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/jae.3129","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,5,9]],"date-time":"2025-05-09T01:55:53Z","timestamp":1746755753000},"page":"554-568","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Combining Proxies and Narrative Sign Restrictions: Revisiting the Effects of Technology Shocks"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"40","author":[{"given":"Yang","family":"Yang","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Finance Zhongnan University of Economics and Law  Wuhan China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ren","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"McCoy College of Business Texas State University  San Marcos Texas United States"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,5,8]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_9_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/aer.101.4.1144"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.econlet.2018.11.027"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/aer.20161852"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Arias J. J. F.Rubio\u2010Ramirez andD. F.Waggoner.2024. \u201cUniform Priors for Impulse Responses.\u201d Working Paper.","DOI":"10.3982\/ECTA21101"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3982\/ECTA14468"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jeconom.2020.12.004"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jmoneco.2011.03.001"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3982\/ECTA12356"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/aer.96.4.1293"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/ecoj.12349"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/07350015.2022.2104857"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/jae.2945"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Cascaldi\u2010Garcia D.2022. \u201cForecast Revisions as Instruments for News Shocks.\u201d (1341).","DOI":"10.17016\/ifdp.2022.1341"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1162\/rest_a_00943"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3982\/QE2029"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Chahrour R. V.Cormun P.De Leo et al.2024. \u201cExchange Rate Disconnect Revisited.\u201d (w32596).","DOI":"10.3386\/w32596"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/restud\/rdab010"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_19_1","unstructured":"Fernald J.2014. \u201cA Quarterly Utilization\u2010Adjusted Series on Total Factor Productivity.\u201d Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco."},{"key":"e_1_2_9_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jmoneco.2014.04.005"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3982\/ECTA16773"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jeconom.2021.02.003"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_23_1","first-page":"2023","article-title":"Identification and Inference Under Narrative Restrictions","author":"Giacomini R.","year":"2023","journal-title":"Reserve Bank of Australia Working Paper RDP"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jmoneco.2022.01.005"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_25_1","unstructured":"H\u00e4rtl T.2022. \u201cIdentifying Proxy VARs With Restrictions on the Forecast Error Variance.\u201d Working Paper."},{"key":"e_1_2_9_26_1","unstructured":"Inoue A. andL.Kilian.2023. \u201cThe Role of the Prior in Estimating VAR Models With Sign Restrictions.\u201d Working Paper."},{"key":"e_1_2_9_27_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/mac.20180090"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_28_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Kim K. T.Laubach andM.Wei.2020. \u201cMacroeconomic Effects of Large\u2010Scale Asset Purchases.\u201d New evidence. FEDS Working Paper.","DOI":"10.17016\/feds.2020.047"},{"issue":"103414","key":"e_1_2_9_29_1","article-title":"Real Exchange Rate and International Spillover Effects of US Technology Shocks","volume":"129","author":"Klein M.","year":"2021","journal-title":"Journal of International Economics"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_30_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/qje\/qjw040"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_31_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/aer.103.6.2612"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_32_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/jae.2721"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_33_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/mac.20190171"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_34_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/aer.103.4.1212"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_35_1","unstructured":"Miranda\u2010Agrippino S. S. H.Hoke andK.Bluwstein.2022. \u201cPatents News and Business Cycles.\u201d Working Paper."},{"key":"e_1_2_9_36_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jinteco.2022.103606"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_37_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jmoneco.2017.10.006"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_38_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/jae.3052"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_39_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/ecoj.12545"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_40_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/07350015.2022.2096042"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_41_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3982\/ECTA17813"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_42_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/ectj\/utac009"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_43_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/07350015.2022.2102021"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_44_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0165-1889(02)00168-9"}],"container-title":["Journal of Applied Econometrics"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/jae.3129","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,8,4]],"date-time":"2025-08-04T03:42:32Z","timestamp":1754278952000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1002\/jae.3129"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,5,8]]},"references-count":43,"journal-issue":{"issue":"5","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,8]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1002\/jae.3129"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/jae.3129","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["0883-7252","1099-1255"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0883-7252","type":"print"},{"value":"1099-1255","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,5,8]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2023-12-11","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2025-03-02","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2025-05-08","order":3,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}]}}