{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2023,10,22]],"date-time":"2023-10-22T07:40:44Z","timestamp":1697960444767},"reference-count":12,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2009,11,11]],"date-time":"2009-11-11T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1257897600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":8625,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["J of Applied Econometrics"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[1986,4]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>It is widely believed that the large econometric models cannot be used for forecasting without considerable intervention on the part of the forecaster. In this paper we challenge this view by reproducing a number of recent forecasts published by the National Institute but without the <jats:italic>ad hoc<\/jats:italic> interventions used at the time. We show that in no case would the forecast, produced by the model used mechanically, have been radically different from that actually published. Further, in an ex\u2010post comparison against actual out\u2010turns, the mechanical model forecast is not obviously dominated by the published version.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/jae.3950010205","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2009,11,11]],"date-time":"2009-11-11T14:56:20Z","timestamp":1257951380000},"page":"163-183","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Forecasting with an econometric model: Some recent results using the national institute model"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"1","author":[{"given":"S. G.","family":"Hall","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"S. G. B.","family":"Henry","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"C. B.","family":"Johns","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2009,11,11]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_1_2_1","unstructured":"Artis M. J.(1982) \u2018Why do forecasts differ\u2019 Bank of England Academic Panel Paper no. 17."},{"key":"e_1_2_1_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2343872"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_4_1","volume-title":"Employment, Output and Inflation: the National Institute Model of the British Economy","author":"Britton A.","year":"1983"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_5_1","unstructured":"Hall S. G.(1984) \u2018The importance of non\u2010linearaties in large forecasting models with stochastic error processes\u2019 National Institute of Economic and Social Research Discussion Paper no. 74."},{"key":"e_1_2_1_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Hall S. G.(1985) \u2018The application of stochastic simulation techniques to NI model 7\u2019 Manchester School forthcoming.","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-9957.1986.tb01264.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_7_1","unstructured":"Henry S. G. B.andC.Johns(1985) \u2018Simulations with National Institute Model 7\u2019 National Institute of Economic and Social Research mimeo."},{"key":"e_1_2_1_8_1","volume-title":"Lectures in Econometrics","author":"Klein L.","year":"1983"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_9_1","unstructured":"McNees S. K.(1975) \u2018An evaluation of economic forecasts\u2019 New England Economic Review November\/December 3\u201339."},{"key":"e_1_2_1_10_1","unstructured":"National Institute of Economic and Social Research. (1984) \u2018Listing of National Institute Model 7\u2019."},{"key":"e_1_2_1_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"50","DOI":"10.1177\/002795017908800106","article-title":"\u2018An assessment and comparison of two NIESR econometric model forecasts\u2019","volume":"88","author":"Osborn D.","year":"1979","journal-title":"National Institute Economic Review"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_12_1","volume-title":"Models of the UK Economy","author":"Wallis K. F.","year":"1984"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"383","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1468-0084.1984.mp46004007.x","article-title":"\u2018Comparing time series and nonlinear model based forecasts\u2019","volume":"46","author":"Wallis K. 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