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The informational content of the survey expectations is compared with simple time series models. It is found that the expectations models are superior for many series, both in terms of producing lower forecast root mean square error (RMSE) values and in detecting turning points in the actual data. Survey expectations are also tested for rational expectations in aggregate using the orthogonality test.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/jae.3950100206","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2007,7,12]],"date-time":"2007-07-12T17:53:58Z","timestamp":1184262838000},"page":"165-185","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":65,"title":["Alternative procedures for converting qualitative response data to quantitative expectations: An application to Australian manufacturing"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"10","author":[{"given":"Jeremy","family":"Smith","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Michael","family":"McAleer","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2006,11,7]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_1_2_1","volume-title":"Production and Decision Theory Under Uncertainty","author":"Aiginger K.","year":"1987"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1401826"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0014-2921(82)90039-3"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2553588"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1911389"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1924211"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/00036848600000007"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_9_1","unstructured":"McAleer M.andC. R.McKenzie(1991) \u2018Cointegration and direct tests of the rational expectations hypothesis\u2019 paper presented to the Australasian Meeting of the Econometric Society Sydney July1991."},{"key":"e_1_2_1_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-9892.1988.tb00462.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_11_1","unstructured":"McKenzie C. R.andM.McAleer(1990) \u2018On efficient estimation and correct inference in models with generated regressors: a general approach\u2019 Working Paper in Economics and Econometrics No. 211 Australian National University."},{"key":"e_1_2_1_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1912274"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2648877"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/260359"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2233258"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_16_1","volume-title":"The Limits to Rational Expectations","author":"Pesaran M. 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H.andA.Timmermann(1990) \u2018A simple non\u2010parametric test of predictive performance\u2019 Program in Applied Econometrics Discussion Paper No. 29 Department of Economics University of California Los Angeles."},{"key":"e_1_2_1_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/00036848800000055"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1401816"}],"container-title":["Journal of Applied Econometrics"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/api.wiley.com\/onlinelibrary\/tdm\/v1\/articles\/10.1002%2Fjae.3950100206","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/jae.3950100206","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2023,10,26]],"date-time":"2023-10-26T13:28:57Z","timestamp":1698326937000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1002\/jae.3950100206"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[1995,4]]},"references-count":18,"journal-issue":{"issue":"2","published-print":{"date-parts":[[1995,4]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1002\/jae.3950100206"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/jae.3950100206","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["0883-7252","1099-1255"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0883-7252","type":"print"},{"value":"1099-1255","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[1995,4]]}}}