{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,24]],"date-time":"2026-02-24T05:05:48Z","timestamp":1771909548127,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":37,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"6","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2001,2,5]],"date-time":"2001-02-05T00:00:00Z","timestamp":981331200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":96,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["J of Applied Econometrics"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2000,11]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>In this paper we propose a dynamic multinomial probit model in order to estimate the long\u2010run and short\u2010 run effects of marketing mix variables on brand choice. The latent variables, which contain the unobserved perceived utilities, follow a first\u2010order vector error correction autoregressive process of order 1 with current and lagged explanatory variables. The unrestricted autoregressive parameter matrix concerns the intertemporal correlation in perceived utilities of households over purchase occasions and indicates the persistence in brand choice. As explanatory variables we consider relative prices and promotional activities like feature and display. An important and novel feature of our model is that it allows for different long\u2010run and short\u2010run effects of promotional activities, thereby extending the models that are currently available in the literature. Additionally, to account for different base preferences for brands across households, we allow for consumer heterogeneity. Our application concerns a panel of households choosing among several brands of a FMCG. Our estimated model turns out to be an improvement over a static model and over a model with only short\u2010run effects, in terms of in\u2010sample fit and out\u2010of\u2010sample forecasts. Copyright \u00a9 2000 John Wiley &amp; Sons, Ltd.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/jae.580","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2002,8,25]],"date-time":"2002-08-25T21:28:49Z","timestamp":1030310929000},"page":"717-744","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":39,"title":["A dynamic multinomial probit model for brand choice with different long\u2010run and short\u2010run effects of marketing\u2010mix variables"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"15","author":[{"given":"Richard","family":"Paap","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Philip Hans","family":"Franses","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2001,2,5]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_1_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.1993.10476321"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.1994.10476863"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0304-4076(98)00055-4"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00436151"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0304-4076(93)90049-B"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1509\/jmkr.37.1.16.18723"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0191-2615(91)90009-8"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/3172782"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_10_1","volume-title":"The Logit Model: An Introduction for Economists","author":"Cramer J.","year":"1991"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_11_1","volume-title":"Multinomial Probit: The Theory and its Application to Demand Forecasting","author":"Daganzo C.","year":"1979"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1287\/mksc.14.1.1"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1287\/mksc.15.4.359"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1287\/mksc.15.1.1"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"602","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.1965.10480816","article-title":"A Bayes approach for combining correlated estimates","volume":"60","author":"Geisser S.","year":"1965","journal-title":"Journal of the American Statistical Association"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1109\/TPAMI.1984.4767596"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_17_1","volume-title":"Computer Science and Statistics: Proceedings of the 23rd Symposium on Interface","author":"Geweke J. 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