{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,16]],"date-time":"2026-07-16T22:00:13Z","timestamp":1784239213469,"version":"3.55.0"},"reference-count":39,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2002,2,1]],"date-time":"2002-02-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1012521600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["J of Applied Econometrics"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2002,3]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>We propose a Bayesian framework in which the uncertainty about the half\u2010life of deviations from purchasing power parity can be quantified. Based on the responses to a survey study, we propose a prior probability distribution for the half\u2010life under the recent float intended to capture widely held views among economists. We derive the posterior probability distribution of the half\u2010life under this consensus prior and confirm the presence of substantial uncertainty about the half\u2010life. We provide for the first time a comprehensive formal evaluation of several nonnested hypotheses of economic interest, including Rogoff's (<jats:ext-link xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\" xlink:href=\"#bib28\">1996<\/jats:ext-link>) claim that the half\u2010life is contained in the range of 3 to 5 years. We find that no hypothesis receives strong support from the data. 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