{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,4]],"date-time":"2026-10-04T18:53:58Z","timestamp":1791140038433,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":34,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2003,8,1]],"date-time":"2003-08-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1059696000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":31,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["J of Applied Econometrics"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2003,7]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>A statistically optimal inference about agents' <jats:italic>ex ante<\/jats:italic> price expectations within the US broiler market is derived using futures prices of related commodities along with a quasi\u2010rational forecasting regression equation. The modelling approach, which builds on a Hamilton\u2010type framework, includes endogenous production and allows expected cash price to be decomposed into anticipated and unanticipated components. We therefore infer the relative importance of various informational sources in expectation formation. Results show that, in addition to the quasi\u2010rational forecast, the true supply shock, future prices, and <jats:italic>ex post<\/jats:italic> commodity price forecast errors have, at times, been influential in broiler producers' price expectations. Copyright \u00a9 2003 John Wiley &amp; Sons, Ltd.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/jae.694","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2003,8,11]],"date-time":"2003-08-11T13:45:34Z","timestamp":1060609534000},"page":"407-426","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":16,"title":["Quasi\u2010rational and <i>ex ante<\/i> price expectations in commodity supply models: an empirical analysis of the US broiler market"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"18","author":[{"given":"Matthew T.","family":"Holt","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Andrew M.","family":"McKenzie","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2003,8]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_8_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1242667"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0165-1889(98)00082-7"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0167-2681(92)90030-F"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0165-1889(99)00027-5"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1912517"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/261205"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1881734"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1391817"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1238581"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0165-1765(98)00020-2"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1923950"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/261140"},{"issue":"1","key":"e_1_2_8_14_1","first-page":"157","article-title":"Was the deflation during the Great Depression anticipated? 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