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It is found that pure fractional processes with a degree of integration, <jats:italic>d<\/jats:italic>, between 0.6 and 0.8 fit the time\u2010series behaviour of aggregate opinion polls for mainstream parties quite well, whereas values of <jats:italic>d<\/jats:italic> in the range of 0.3 to 0.6 are obtained for opinion polls related to smaller regional parties. Those results are in agreement with theories of political allegiance based on aggregation of heterogeneous voters with different degrees of commitment and pragmatism. Further, those models are found to be useful in forecasting the results of the last general elections in Spain. As a further contribution, new econometric techniques for estimation and testing of ARFIMA model are used to provide the previous evidence. Copyright \u00a9 2003 John Wiley &amp; Sons, Ltd.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/jae.700","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2003,4,16]],"date-time":"2003-04-16T10:08:58Z","timestamp":1050487738000},"page":"137-155","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":24,"title":["Long\u2010range dependence in Spanish political opinion poll series"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"18","author":[{"given":"Juan J.","family":"Dolado","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jes\u00fas","family":"Gonzalo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Laura","family":"Mayoral","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2003,1,14]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_7_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1955282"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_3_1","volume-title":"Statistics for Long Memory Processes","author":"Beran J","year":"1994"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2082609"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-985X.1997.00075.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0261-3794(99)00035-9"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1391309"},{"issue":"2","key":"e_1_2_7_8_1","first-page":"62","article-title":"What can economics learn from political science and vice versa","volume":"76","author":"Chrystal KA","year":"1987","journal-title":"Economic Review"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_9_1","first-page":"427","article-title":"Distribution of estimators of autoregressive time series with a unit root","volume":"74","author":"Dickey DA","year":"1979","journal-title":"Journal of the American Statistical Association"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1912517"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1468-0262.00359"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_12_1","volume-title":"Object\u2010oriented Matrix Programming using Ox 2.0","author":"Doornik JA","year":"1998"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_13_1","unstructured":"DoornikJA OomsM.1998. 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